Palavras-chave
Como Citar
Resumo
Este trabalho objetiva analisar teoricamente a conexão entre abertura da conta de capitais e crescimento econômico, analisando em que medida o controle de capitais contribui para o êxito de uma política voltada para o crescimento econômico. A literatura convencional em geral descarta o controle de capitais como a melhor alternativa para garantir o crescimento equilibrado, embora admita, em casos especiais, o uso de controles quantitativos temporários para evitar crises cambiais e financeiras. O approach teórico keynesiano de crescimento econômico, fundamentado na literatura de inspiração kaldoriana dá pistas da desejabilidade de controles como estratégia para garantir crescimento equilibrado no balanço de pagamentos. A evidência empírica também dá suporte a essa alternativa. As conclusões, portanto, conduzem à importância de estratégias de controles de capitais para coadjuvar no crescimento sem restrições no balanço de pagamentos.
Abstract
This paper aims at exploring theoretically the literature regarding capital flows liberalization and economic growth. Precisely, we intend to analyze the role of capital controls over economic growth. Mainstream literature discard capital controls as an alternative to foster economic growth, although admits, in few situations, temporarily quantitative capital controls to avoid financial crisis. The Keynesian approach to economic growth by means of Kaldorian literature is the key to understanding capital controls as an strategy to warrant growth under balance of payments equilibrium. Conclusions highlight the role of capital controls in helping economic growth.
Key words: Capital controls. Balance of payments. Financial account
Referências
AIZENMAN, Joshua. Financial liberalization in Latin-America in the 1990s: a reassessment. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Feb. 2005. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 11145).
ANDRADE, Joaquim Pinto de; SILVA, Maria Luiza Falcão. Divergências e convergências sobre as crises cambiais. In: LIMA, Gilberto Tadeu; SICSÚ, João; PAULA, Luiz Fernando de (Org.). Macroeconomia moderna: Keynes e a economia contemporânea. Rio de Janeiro: Campus, 1999. p. 306-327.
ARESTIS, Philip; GLICKMAN, Murray. Financial crisis in the Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 26, p. 237-260, 2002.
ATHANASOULIS, Stefano G.; WINCOOP, Eric van. Growth uncertainty and risksharing. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 45, p. 477-505, 2000.
BARRO, Robert J. et al. Capital mobility in neoclassical models of growth. The American Economic Review, v. 85, n. 1, p. 103-115, Mar. 1995.
BARRO, Robert J; SALA-I-MARTIN, Xavier. Economic growth. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2004. BARTOLINI, Leonardo; DRAZEN, Allan. Capital-account liberalization as a signal. The American Economic Review, v. 87, n. 1, p. 138-154, Mar. 1997.
BERNANKE, Ben S. Monetary policy in a world of mobile capital. Cato Journal, v. 25, n. 1, p. 1-12, 2005.
BORDO, Michael et al. Is the crisis problem growing more severe? Economic Policy, v. 16, n. 32, p. 53-82, Apr. 2001.
BLECKER, R. Taming global finance. Washington, DC, Economic Policy Institute, 1999.
CALVO, Guillermo; REINHART, Carmen. Fear of floating. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Nov. 2000. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 7993).
CALVO, Guillermo; MENDOZA, Enrique. Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets. In: CALVO, Guillermo (Ed.). Emerging capital markets in turmoil: bad luck or bad policy? Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005. p. 243-282.
CARVALHO, Fernando Cardim de. Políticas econômicas para economias monetárias. In: LIMA, Gilberto Tadeu; SICSÚ, João; Paula, Luiz Fernando de (Org.). Macroeconomia moderna: Keynes e a economia contemporânea. Rio de Janeiro: Campus, 1999. p. 258- 283.
CARVALHO, Fernando Cardim de; SICSÚ, João. Controvérsias recentes sobre controles de capitais. Revista de Economia Política, São Paulo, v. 24, n. 2, abr./jun. 2004.
COOPER, Richard N. Should capital-account convertibility be a world objective? Essays in International Finance, Princeton, n. 207, p. 11-19, 1998.
COOPER, Richard N. Should capital controls be banished? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Washington D. C., p. 89-125, 1999.
CURADO, Marcelo Luiz. Rigidez comercial, movimentos de capital e crise cambial. Tese (Doutorado)–Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, 2001.
DAVIDSON, Paul. Are grains of sand in the wheels of international finance sufficient to do the job when boulders are often required? The Economic Journal, n. 107, p. 671-686, May 1997.
DAVIDSON, Paul. Volatile financial markets and the speculator. Economic Issues, v. 3, 1998.
DAVIDSON, Paul. Liquidity vs. efficiency in liberalized international financial markets: a warning to developing economies. Revista de Economia Política, São Paulo, v. 20, n. 3, p. 3-21, jul./set. 2000.
DAVIDSON, Paul. Resgatando a revolução keynesiana. In: LIMA, Gilberto Tadeu; SICSÚ, João. Macroeconomia do emprego e da renda: Keynes e o keynesianismo. Barueri: Manole, 2003, p. 3-28.
DOOLEY, Michael. Capital controls and emerging markets. International Journal of Finance and Economics, v. 1, p. 197-205, Jul. 1996.
DORNBUSCH, Rudiger. Capital controls: an idea whose time is past. Essays in International Finance, Princeton, n. 207, p. 20-27, 1998.
DUTT, A. Interest rate policy in LDCs: a post Keynesian view. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 13, n. 2, p. 210-232, 1990.
DUTT, A. Equilibrium, path dependence and hysteresis in post keynesian models. In: ARESTIS, Philip et al. Markets, unemployment and economic policy – essays in honor of Geoff Harcourt. New York: Routledge, 1997, p. 238-253.
EATWELL, John. International financial liberalization: the impact on world development. New York, USA, 1996. (CEPA Working Paper, n. 1).
EDWARDS, Sebastian. How effective are capital controls? Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Nov. 1999. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 7413).
EDWARDS, Sebastian; KHAN, Mohsin S. Interest rate determination in developing countries: a conceptual framework. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Jan. 1985. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 1531).
EICHENGREEN, Barry. Capital account liberalization: what do cross-country studies tell us? The World Bank Economic Review, v. 15, n. 3, p. 341-365, 2001.
EICHENGREEN, Barry. et al. Capital account liberalization: theoretical and practical aspects. Occasional Paper, Washington D. C., IMF, n. 172, 1998.
FAVERO, Carlos A.; GIAVAZZI, Francesco. Inflation targeting and debt: lessons from Brazil. In: GIAVAZZI, Francesco et al. (Ed.). Inflation targeting, debt, and the Brazilian experience, 1999 to 2003. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2005. p. 85-108.
FISCHER, Stanley. Capital-account liberalization and the role of the IMF. Essays in International Finance, Princeton, n. 207, p. 1-10, 1998.
FLOOD, Robert; MARION, Nancy. Perspectives on the recent currency crisis literature. In: CALVO, Guilhermo et al. (Ed.). Money, capital mobility, and trade: Essays in honor of Robert Mundell. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2001.
FOLEY, Duncan K. Financial fragility in developing economies. In: DUTT, Amitava K.; ROSS, Jaime. Development economics and structuralist macroeconomics. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2003, p. 157-168.
FRY, Maxwell J. Money, interest and banking in economic development. Baltimore: John Hopkins University. 1995.
GOURINCHAS, Pierre-Olivier; JEANNE, Olivier. On the benefits of capital account liberalization for emerging economies. CEPR, Jun. 2002.
GOURINCHAS, Pierre-Olivier. The elusive gains from international financial integration. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, May 2003. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 9684).
GRABEL, Ilene. Averting crisis? Assessing measures to manage financial integration in emerging economies. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 27, p. 317-336, 2003.
GREENWALD, Bruce C.; STIGLITZ, Joseph E. Externalities in economies with imperfect information and incomplete markets. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, p. 229-264, May 1986.
GROSSMAN, Sanford J.; STIGLITZ, Joseph E. Information and competitive price systems. American Economic Review, v. 66, p. 246-253, May 1976.
KEYNES, John Maynard. A teoria geral do emprego, do juro e da moeda. São Paulo: Nova Cultural, 1996.
KREGEL, Jan A. Economic methodology in the face of uncertainty: the modelling methods of Keynes and the post-keynesians. The Economic Journal, n. 86, p. 209-225, Jun. 1976.
KREGEL, Jan A. Yes, ‘It’ did happened again: a Minsky crisis happened in Asia. New York: The Jerome Levy Economics Institute, Apr. 1998. (Working Paper, n. 234).
KREGEL, Jan A. Havia alternativa à crise brasileira? In: VELLOSO, João Paulo dos Reis (Coord.). A crise mundial e a nova agenda de crescimento. Rio de Janeiro: José Olympio, 1999. p. 137-157.
KRUGMAN, Paul. What happened to Asia?. Cambridge, Jan. 1998. Disponível em: http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/DISINTER.html. Acesso em: 10 set. 2003.
LEVINE, Ross. Financial development and economic growth: Views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, v. 35, p. 688-726, Jun. 1997.
LIBÂNIO, Gilberto A. “Good governance” in monetary policy and the negative real effects of inflation targeting in developing economies. Belo Horizonte: CEDEPLARUFMG, dez. 2005. (Texto para Discussão, n. 277).
McCOMBIE, J. S. L.; THIRLWALL, A. P. Economic growth and the balance-ofpayments constraint. New York: St. Martins Press, 1994.
McCOMBIE, J. S. L. Growth in an international context: a post-keynesian view. In: DEPREZ, J.; HARVEY, J. T. (Ed.). Foundations of international economics: post keynesian perspectives. London: Routledge, 1999.
MINSKY, Hyman. Money, financial markets, and the coherence of market economy. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 3, n. 1, 1980.
MINSKY, Hyman. The financial instability hypothesis. New York: The Jerome Levy Economics Institute, May 1992. (Working Paper, n. 74).
MISHKIN, Frederic S. Lessons from the Asian crisis. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Apr. 1999. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 7102).
OBSTFELD, Maurice. Risk-taking, global diversification, and growth. The American Economic Review, v. 84, n. 5, Dec. 1994.
OBSTFELD, Maurice. The global capital market: Benefactor or menace? Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 14, p. 9-30, 1998.
OBSTFELD, Maurice; ROGOFF, Kenneth. Foundations of international macroeconomics.
Cambridge: MIT Press, 1996. OREIRO, José Luís. Autonomia de política econômica, fragilidade externa e equilíbrio do balanço de pagamentos: a teoria econômica dos controles de capitais. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, v. 13, n. 2 (23), p. 1-22, jul./dez. 2004.
PRASAD, Eswar et al. Financial globalization, growth and volatility in developing countries. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Dec. 2004. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 10942).
RODRIK, Dani. Who needs capital-account convertibility? Essays in International Finance, Princeton, n. 207, p. 55-65, 1998.
RODRIK, Dani ; VELASCO, Andres. Short term capital flows. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Sept. 1999. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 7364).
ROGOFF, Kenneth. Rethinking capital controls: When should we keep an open mind? Finance & Development: A quarterly magazine of the IMF, Washington, D.C., v. 39, n. 4, p. 1-5, Dec. 2002.
ROMER, David. Advanced macroeconomics. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2005.
SICSÚ, J.; FERRARI FILHO, F. Câmbio e controles de capitais. Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier, 2006.
SETTERFIELD, Mark. (Org.). The economics of demand-led growth. Cheltentam: Edward Elgar, 2002.
STIGLITZ, Joseph E. Endogenous growth and cycles. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, Mar. 1993. (NBER Working Paper Series, n. 4286).
STIGLITZ, Joseph E. Capital market liberalization, economic growth, and instability. World Development, v. 28, n. 6, p. 1075-1086, 2000.
STIGLITZ, Joseph E. Globalization and growth in emerging markets and the new economy. Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 25, p. 505-524, 2003.
STIGLITZ, Joseph E; WEISS, Andrew. Credit rationing in markets with imperfect information. American Economic Review, v. 71, n. 3, p. 393-410, Jun. 1981.
TAYLOR, Lance. Capital market crises: Liberalization, fixed exchange rates and marketdriven destabilisation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 22, p. 663-676, 1998.
TOBIN, James. A proposal for international monetary reform. Eastern Economic Journal, v. 4, n. 3-4, p. 153-159, Jul./Oct. 1978.
WILLIAMSON, John; MAHAR, Molly. A survey of financial liberalization. Essays in International Finance, Princeton, n. 211, p. 1-70, 1998.
A Economia e Sociedade utiliza a licença do Creative Commons (CC), preservando assim, a integridade dos artigos em ambiente de acesso aberto.
Downloads
