Como Citar
Resumo
A influência dos fatores econômicos sobre os resultados eleitorais na América Latina tem sido uma das questões socialmente mais polêmicas e academicamente menos exploradas no debate geral sobre os determinantes do voto na região. Em grandes linhas, dois argumentos contrapostos têm prevalecido para entender os resultados de tais contendas: para um, a sorte do partido do governo está determinada por seu desempenho econômico, o que tem sido chamado de “voto econômico”; para outro, as eleições representam”referenda políticos” concentrados nos temas mais importantes para a cidadania e os sentimentos de pertencimento partidário, mas sobretudo, na liderança demonstrada pela situação no fim de sua administração, medida em termos da popularidade do presidente. Utilizando dados macroeconômicos e de opinião pública originais na análise quantitativa de ambas hipóteses para 30 eleições realizadas entre 1982 e 1994 em 15 países da região, verifica-se um maior respaldo para a hipótese do “referendum político”; na medida em que o impacto da popularidade presidencial sobre a distribuição de votos obtida pela situação supera os efeitos de diferentes variáveis macroeconômicas.
Abstract
Elections have become part of the regular political routines in Latin America; yet, the attention given by social scientists to issues of voting behavior has been wanting. This has become even more true for the specific discussion on the determinants of electoral outcomes. Two basic hypotheses have been advanced in relation to this: one, encompassed in the notion of “economic voting” assumes that the incoumbents economic performance is the best predictor of how electorates will collectively allocate their ballots. In contrast, there is the hypothesis of the election as a “political referendum”; which sees the return of votes going to the incumbent as a function of the political leadership provided by the rulling party (as measured by the presidential approval rate), as well as a function of the differences in party attachments among the population and the salience of non economic issues. Using original economic and surveys research data for 30 presidential elections celebrated in 15 Latin American nations, a quantitative aggregate analysis reveals the effect of the approval rate of the president job as the major driving force underlying the electoral outcomes. Controlled by political variables, inflation, GDP growth rates, and unemployment levels show no significant impact, thus endorsing the “referendum” hypothesis.
Referências
BROPHY-BAERMANN, M. Economics and elections: the mexican case. Social Science Quarterly, v. 75, n. 1, p. 125-135, march 1994.
BUENDIA, J. Economic reform, public opinion and presidential approval in Mexico: the Salinas years (1988-1993). M.A. dissertation. University of Chicago, Chicago, 1994.
CALVERT, S.; CALVERT, P. Argentina: political culture and instability. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1989.
CANZANI, A. Minorities democracy: the uruguayan election of 1994. Exposição na Conferência Regional da WAPOR. Margarita Is. 10-12 janeiro 1995.
CARRASQUERO, J. Legitimacy and popular support for the democratic political in Venezuela. Ph.D dissertation. University of Connecticut, Storrs, 1995.
CATTERBERG, E. Argentina confronts politics. Political culture and public opinion in the argentine transition to democracy. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1991.
CATTERBERG, E.; BRAUN, M. Las elecciones presidenciales Argentinas del 14 de mayo de 1989: la ruta a la normalidade. Dearrollo Econômico, v. 29, n. 115, p. 361-374, octubre-diciembre 1989.
CEDATOS. Sem Título. Edição única. Quito, agosto 1992.
DIETZ, H. Electoral politics in Peru, 1978-1986. Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs. v. 28, n. 4, p. 139-163, fall 1987.
DOMINGUEZ, J.; McCANN, J. Shaping Mexico's electoral arena: the construction of partisan cleavages in the 1988 and 1991 national elections. American Political Science Review. v. 89, n. 1, p.
-48, march 1995.
ECHEGARAY, F. Understanding support for free-market policies in Argentina. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, v. 5, n. 4, p. 369-375, 1993.
ECONOMIC COMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. Preliminary overview of the economy of Latin America and the caribbean. Santiago: United Nations, 1994.
EULAU, H.; LEWIS-BECK, M. (ed.). Economic conditions and electoral outcomes. The United States and Western Europe. New York: Agathon, 1985.
HERMAN, E.; BRODHEAD, F. Demonstration elections: U.S.-staged elections in the Dominican Republic, Vietnam, and El Salvador. Boston: South End Press, 1984.
INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK. Economic and social progress in Latin America. Washington, DC: IADB. 1982-1994.
INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK. Keesing’s record of world events. London: Longman, 1992-1994.
LEWIS-BECK, M. Economics and elections: the major western democracies. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1988.
MARTZ, J. Electoral campaigning and Latin American democratization. The grand-colombian experience. Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs. v. 32, n. 1, p. 17-43, spring 1990.
MENEGUELLO, R. Electoral behavior in Brazil: the 1994 presidential elections. International Social Science Journal, n. 146, december 1995. no prelo.
NAlM, M. The launching of radical policy changes, 1989-1991. In: TULCHIN, J. (ed.). Venezuela in the wake of radical reform. Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1993.
NELSON, J. (ed.). Fragile coalitions: the politics of economic adjustment. New Brunswick: Transaction, 1989.
NOHLEN, D. (ed.). Enciclopedia electoral latinoamericana y del Caribe. San Jose: Instituto Interamericano de Derechos Humanos, 1993.
NORPOTH, H. et al. (ed.). Economics and politics. The calculus of support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991.
O'DONNELL, G. Modernizacion y autoritarismo. Buenos Aires: Paidos, 1973.
PRZEWORSKY, A. Some problems in the study of the transition to democracy. In: O'DONNELL, G.; SCHMITTER, P.; WHITEHEAD, L. (ed.). Transitions from authoritarian rule: comparative perspectives. Baltimore: The John Hopkins University Press, 1986.
REMMER, K. The political impact of economic crisis in Latin America in the 1980s. American Political Science Review, v. 85, n. 3, p. 777-800, 1991.
RIUS, A. El gobierno, la economia, y el hombre de la calle. Suma, v. 13, n. 7, Octubre, p. 17-35, 1992.
SCHUMAN, H.; PRESSER, S. Questions and answers in attitude surveys: experiments on question wording, form and context. New York: Academic Press, 1981.
SELIGSON, M.; BERRANTES, M. G. Ordinary elections in extraordinary times: the political economic of voting in Costa Rica. In: BOOTH, J.; SELIGSON, M. (ed.). Elections and democracy in Central America. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, p. 158-184, 1989.
THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENGE UNIT. Country report (several countries). London: The Economist, 1987-1995.
TURNER, F. C.; ELORDI, C. Economic values and the role of government in Latin America. International Social Science Journal, n. 145, september 1995. no prelo.
WAISBORD, S. Television and election campaigns in contemporary Argentina. Journal of Communication, n. 44, p. 125-135, spring 1994.
WIARDA, H.. Social change, political development, and the Latin American tradition. In: WIARDA, H. (ed.). Politics and social change in Latin America. Still a distinct tradition?. Boulder: Westview Press,
A Opinião Pública utiliza a licença do Creative Commons (CC), preservando assim, a integridade dos artigos em ambiente de acesso aberto.
Downloads
