Framing effects on foreign policy: experimental evidence from emerging countries and the Argentine-Brazilian rivalry


  • Fernando Mouron Universidade de São Paulo


Framing effects. Survey experiment. Foreign policy. Argentina. Brazil.


Civil society plays an increasingly important role in the formulation of foreign policy in emerging countries. This article investigates whether public opinion is sensitive to framing effects regarding foreign policy. Data from a survey experiment with a sample of 1,530 students at the Universidad de Buenos Aires and the Universidad Nacional de Avellaneda, we find that participants are sensitive to framing effects on foreign affairs. The interviewees changed their preferences when stimulated by information regarding Brazilian economic growth and military expenditure in comparison with Argentina. In turn, this effect was more pronounced among a) people who tend to stay less informed regarding foreign affairs and b) individuals who are more nationalistic.


Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Fernando Mouron, Universidade de São Paulo

Possui graduação em Ciência Política, com medalha ao mérito, pela Universidade de Buenos Aires (2010) e Mestrado em Relações Internacionais pelo Instituto de Relações Internacionais da Universidade de São Paulo. Atualmente é Doutorando em Relações Internacionais pelo Joint Degree Program "King's College London - Instituto de Relações Internacionais USP", bolsista da FAPESP e membro do Centro de Estudos das Negociações Internacionais (CAENI-USP).


BANDEIRA, M. O eixo Argentina-Brasil: o processo de integração da América Latina. Brasília: Editora UnB, 1987.

BARABAS, J.; JERIT, J. "Are survey experiments externally valid?". American Political Science Review, vol. 104, n° 2, p. 226-242, 2010.

BERNAL-MEZA, R. "Argentina y Brasil en la política internacional: regionalismo y Mercosur (estrategias, cooperación y factores de tensión)". Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol. 51, n° 2, p. 154-178, 2008.

BOETTCHER, W. A.; COBB, M. D. "Echoes of Vietnam? Casualty framing and public perceptions of success and failure in Iraq". Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 50, n° 6, p. 831-854, 2006.

CHONG, D.; DRUCKMAN, J. "Framing theory". Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 10, p. 103-126, 2007.

CONSEJO ARGENTINO PARA LAS RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES. La Opinión Pública Argentina sobre Política Exterior y Defensa 2002 (online), 2002. Obtenido de Accedido en: 6/6/2014.

CONSEJO ARGENTINO PARA LAS RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES. La Opinión Pública Argentina sobre Política Exterior y Defensa 2006 (online), 2006. Obtenido de Accedido en: 6/6/2014.

CONSEJO ARGENTINO PARA LAS RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES. La Opinión Pública Argentina sobre Política Exterior y Defensa 2010 (online), 2010. Obtenido de Accedido en: 6/6/2014.

CONSEJO ARGENTINO PARA LAS RELACIONES INTERNACIONALES. La Opinión Pública Argentina sobre Política Exterior y Defensa 2015 (online), 2015. Obtenido de Accedido en: 24/2/2016.

DASGUPTA, N.; HUNSINGER, M. "The opposite of a great truth is also true: when do student samples help versus hurt the scientific study of prejudice?". Psychological Inquiry, vol. 19, n° 2, p. 90-98, 2008.

DONOVAN, R. J.; JALLEH, G. "Positive versus negatively framed product attributes: the influence of involvement". Psychology & Marketing, vol. 28, n° 4, p. 215-234, 1999.

DRUCKMAN, J. N. "The implications of framing effects for citizen competence". Political Behavior, vol. 23, n° 3, p. 225-256, 2001.

DRUCKMAN, J. N., et al. "The growth and development of experimental research in political science". American Political Science Review, vol. 100, n° 4, p. 627-635, 2006.

DRUCKMAN, J. N.; KAM, C. D. "Students as experimental participants: a defense of the'narrow data base'". Available at SSRN 1498843, 2009.

DRUCKMAN, J. N. "Students as experimental participants". Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science, vol. 1, p. 41-57, 2011.

ECHEGARAY, F. "O papel das pesquisas de opinião pública na consolidação da democracia: a experiência latino-americana". Opinião Pública, vol. 7, n° 1, p. 60-74, 2001.

FARIA, C. A. P. "Opinião pública e política externa: insulamento, politização e reforma na produção da política exterior do Brasil". Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol. 51, n° 2, p. 80-97, 2008.

FLACHAIRE, E.; HOLLARD, G. "Individual sensitivity to framing effects". Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 67, n° 1, p. 296-307, 2008.

FOYLE, D. C. "Leading the public to war? The influence of American public opinion on the Bush administration's decision to go to war in Iraq". International Journal of Public Opinion Research, vol. 16, n° 3, p. 269-294, 2004.

GAINES, B.; KUKLINSKI, J.; QUIRCK, P. "The logic of the survey experiment reexamined". Political Analysis, vol. 15, n° 1, p. 1-20, 2007.

GARTNER, S. S. "The multiple effects of casualties on public support for war: an experimental approach". American Political Science Review, vol. 102, n° 1, p. 95-106, 2008.

GELPI, C.; FEAVER, P. D.; REIFLER, J. Paying the human costs of war: American public opinion and casualties in military conflicts. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009.

HERMANN, M. G.; OZKECECI-TANER, B. "The experiment and foreign policy decision making". Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science, New York, p. 430-442, 2011.

HILL, C. The changing politics of foreign policy. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003.

HIRST, M. "Las relaciones Argentina-Brasil: de la asimetría al equilibrio". Integración Latinoamericana, vol. 12, p. 35-43, 1987.

HISCOX, M. J. "Through a glass and darkly: attitudes toward international trade and the curious effects of issue framing". International Organization, vol. 60, n° 3, p. 755-780, 2006.

HOLSTI, O. R. "Public opinion and foreign policy: challenges to the Almond-Lippmann consensus Mershon series: research programs and debates". International Studies Quarterly, vol. 36, n° 4, p. 439-466, 1992.

HOWLETT, M. "A dialética da opinião pública: efeitos recíprocos da política pública e da opinião pública em sociedades democráticas contemporâneas". Opinião Pública, vol. 6, n° 2, p. 167-186, 2000.

HYDE, S. D. "The future of field experiments in international relations". The annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 628, n° 1, p. 72-84, 2010.

HYMAN, H.; SHEATSLEY, P. B. The current status of American public opinion. Silver Spring: National Council of Social Studies, 1950.

JACOBS, L.; PAGE, B. "Who influences US foreign policy?". American Political Science Review, vol. 99, n° 1, p. 107-123, 2005.

KAUFMAN, R. G. "'To balance or to bandwagon?' alignment decisions in 1930s Europe". Security Studies, vol. 1, n° 3, p. 417-447, 1992.

KNOLL, B.; REDLAWSK, D.; SANBORN, H. "Framing labels and immigration policy attitudes in the Iowa caucuses". Political Behavior, p. 1-22, 2011.

KRINER, D. L.; SHEN, F. X. "Reassessing american casualty sensitivity the mediating influence of inequality". Journal of Conflict Resolution, p. 1-28, 2013.

LENTNER, H. H. "Public policy and foreign policy: divergences, intersections, exchange". Review of Policy Research, vol. 23, n° 1, p. 169-181, 2006.

LIPPMANN, W. Public opinion. Edición de dominio público. New Jersey: Transaction Publishers, 1932.

LOPES, D. B. "A política externa brasileira e a 'circunstância democrática': do silêncio respeitoso à politização ruidosa". Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol. 54, n° 1, p. 67-86, 2011.

LOPES, D. B.; FARIA, C. A. P. "Eleições presidenciais e política externa brasileira". Estudos Internacionais: Revista de Relações Internacionais da PUC Minas, vol. 2, n° 2, p. 139-147, 2014.

MALAMUD, A. "A leader without followers? The growing divergence between the regional and global performance of Brazilian foreign policy". Latin American Politics and Society, vol. 53, n° 3, p. 1-24, 2011.

MCDERMOTT, R. "Research transparency and data archiving for experiments". Political Science & Politics, vol. 47, n° 1, p. 67-71, 2014.

MERKE, F. "Neither balance nor bandwagon: South American international society meets Brazil's rising power". International Politics, vol. 52, n° 2, p. 178-192, 2015.

MILANI, C. R. S.; PINHEIRO, L. "Política externa brasileira: os desafios de sua caracterização como política pública". Contexto Internacional, vol. 35, n° 1, p. 11-41, 2013.

MINTZ, A.; REDD, S. "Framing effects in international relations". Synthese, vol. 135, n° 2, p. 193-213, 2003.

MORTON, R. B.; WILLIAMS, K. C. Experimental political science and the study of causality: from nature to the lab. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.

MOURON, F.; ONUKI, J. "¿Brasil es un líder en América del Sur? El papel brasileiro a través del concepto de liderazgo situacional". Estudos Internacionais: Revista de Relações Internacionais da PUC Minas, vol. 3, n° 1, p. 9-26, 2015.

MUELLER, J. American foreign policy and public opinion in a new era: eleven propositions. In: NORRANDER, B.; WILCOX, C. (eds.). Understanding public opinion. Washington: CQ Press, p. 49-72, 2002.

NELSON, T.; OXLEY, Z.; CLAWSON, R. "Toward a psychology of framing effects". Political Behavior, vol. 19, n° 3, p. 221-246, 1997.

NEUMAN, W. L.; ROBSON, K. Basics of social research. Pearson, 2004.

PAYNE, S. L. B. The art of asking questions: studies in public opinion. Princeton University Press, 1951.

PUGLISI, R.; SNYDER, J. M. "Newspaper coverage of political scandals". The Journal of Politics, vol. 73, n° 3, p. 931-950, 2011.

RUGG, D.; CANTRIL, H. "The wording of questions in public opinion polls". The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, vol. 37, n° 4, 1942.

RUGG, D. "The wording of questions". Gauging Public Opinion, p. 23-50, 1944.

RUSSELL, R.; TOKATLIAN, J. G. Percepciones Argentinas de Brasil: ambivalencias y expectativas, In: SORJ, B.; FAUSTO, S. (eds.). En Brasil y América del Sur: miradas cruzadas. Buenos Aires: Catálogos, p. 281-316, 2011.

SCHENONI, L. L. "Rise and hegemony: some observations on emerging powers from a South American perspective". Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional, vol. 55, n° 1, p. 31-48, 2012.

SCHROEDER, P. "Historical reality vs. neo-realist theory". International Security, vol. 19, n° 1, p. 108-148, 1994.

SCHUMAN, H.; PRESSER, S. "Question wording as an independent variable in survey analysis". Sociological Methods & Research, vol. 6, n° 2, p. 151-170, 1977.

SCHUMAN, H. Questions and answers in attitude surveys: experiments on question form, wording, and context. London: Sage, 1981.

SELCHER, W. A. "Brazilian-Argentine relations in the 1980s: from wary rivalry to friendly competition". Journal of Inter-American Studies and World Affairs, vol. 27, n° 2, p. 25-53, 1985.

SIKKINK, K.; WOLFSON, L. "Las capacidades y la autonomía del Estado en Brasil y la Argentina: un enfoque neoinstitucionalista". Desarrollo Económico, vol. 32, n° 128, p. 543-574, 1993.

SINGER, J. D.; BREMER, S.; STUCKEY, J. "Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820-1965". Peace, War and Numbers, vol. 19, 1972.

SOROKA, S. N. "Media, public opinion, and foreign policy". The International Journal of Press/Politics, vol. 8, n° 1, p. 27-48, 2003.

TOMZ, M., et al. "Software for interpreting and presenting statistical results". Journal of Statistical Software, vol. 8, n° 1, p. 1-30, 2003.

TURGEON, M.; RENNÓ, L. "Informação política e atitudes sobre gastos governamentais e impostos no Brasil: evidências a partir de um experimento de opinião pública". Opinião Pública, vol. 16, n° 1, p. 143-159, 2010.

TVERSKY, A; KAHNEMAN, D. "The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice". Science, vol. 211, n° 4481, p. 453-458, 1981.

WALTZ, K. N. "Structural realism after the Cold War". International Security, vol. 25, n° 1, p. 5-41, 2000.




Como Citar

MOURON, F. Framing effects on foreign policy: experimental evidence from emerging countries and the Argentine-Brazilian rivalry. Opinião Pública, Campinas, SP, v. 22, n. 1, p. 195–218, 2016. Disponível em: Acesso em: 2 dez. 2021.