Abstract
The research presented in this article analyzes the strategies of the political announcements published on Twitter by the candidates for the second round of presidential election in Colombia, in the year 2018. The purpose and focus of the message of 425 posts was identified and a negative binomial regression model was applied to establish the effects of these elements on the participation of users on Twitter measured by likes, comments and retweets. There were two relevant findings: a) aggressive political advertising – when candidates attack, or defend against an opponent – increases the participation of users on Twitter; b) Messages with personal themes of the candidate have greater social support than publications that address political proposals.
References
ABBE, O.,et al.“Agenda setting in congressional elections: the impact of issues and campaigns on voting behavior”. Political Research Quarterly, vol. 56, nº 4, p. 419-430, dic. 2003.
ABITBOL, A.;LEE, S. “Messages on CSR-dedicated Facebook pages: what works and what doesn’t”. Public Relations Review, vol. 43, nº 4, p. 796-808, nov. 2017.
ANSOLABEHERE, S.;IYENGAR, S. “Riding the wave and claiming ownership over issues: the joint effects of advertising and news coverage in campaigns”. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 58, nº 3, p. 335-357, 1994.
ANSOLABEHERE, S., et al.“Does attack advertising demobilize the electorate?”. American Political Science Review, vol. 88, nº 4, p. 829-838, 1994.
BASIL, M.; SCHOOLER, C.; REEVES, B. Positive and negative political advertising: effectiveness of ads and perceptions of candidates. In: BIOCCA, F. (ed.).Television and political advertising. Vol. 1, Psychological processes; Vol. 2, Signs, codes, and images (p. 245-262). New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. 1991.
BECERRA, N.;VELA, F. “Una comparación de los modelos Poisson y binomial negativa con Stata: un ejercicio didáctico”. In: 3er Encuentro de Usuarios de Stata. México, D.F., p. 1-23, mayo 2011.
BENOIT, W. “A functional analysis of political advertising across media, 1998”. Communication Studies, vol. 51, nº 3, p. 274-295, 2000.
_______. “The functional approach to presidential television spots: acclaiming, attacking, defending 1952-2000”. Communication Studies, vol. 52, nº 2, p. 109-126, 2001.
BENOIT, W.; KLYUKOVSKI, A. “A functional analysis of the 2004 Ukrainian debates”. Argumentation, vol. 20, nº 2, p. 209-225, sep. 2006.
BENOIT, W.;SHEAFER, T. “Functional theory and political discourse: televised debates in Israel and the United States”. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, vol. 83, nº 2, p. 281-297, jun. 2006.
BENOIT, W.;WEN, W.;YU, T. “A functional analysis of 2004 Taiwanese political debates”. Asian Journal of Communication, vol. 17, nº 1, p. 24-39, mar. 2007.
BERELSON, B.;LAZARSFELD, P.; MCPHEE, W. Voting: a study of opinion formation in a presidential campaign. University of Chicago Press: Midway Reprint, 1954.
BORAH, P. “Political Facebook use: campaign strategies used in 2008 and 2012 presidential elections”. Journal of Information Technology and Politics, vol. 13, nº 4, p. 326-338, mayo 2016.
BORBA, F. “Propaganda negativa nas eleições presidenciais de 2010: o caminho para José Serra?”. Em debate: Periódico de Opinião Pública e Conjuntura Política, ano 2, nº 8, ago. 2010.
BRADER, T. “Striking a responsive chord: how political ads motivate and persuade voters by appealing to emotions”. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 49, nº 2, p. 388-405, abr. 2005.
BRIANS, C. L.; WATTENBERG, M. P.“Campaign issue knowledge and salience: comparing reception from TV commercials, TV news and newspapers”. American Journal of Political Science, p. 172-193, 1996.
CAMERON, C.; TRIVEDI, P. Regression analysis of count data.2nded. (en línea).Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/CBO9781139013567, 2013.
CHAFFEE, S.; CHOE, S. “Time of decision and media use during the Ford-Carter campaign”. Public Opinion Quarterly, vol. 44, nº 1, p. 53-69, ene. 1980.
COXE, S.;WEST, S.;AIKEN, L. “The analysis of count data: a gentle introduction to Poisson regression and its alternatives”. Journal of Personality Assessment, vol. 91,nº 2, p. 121-136, feb. 2009.
DALTON, R. The good citizen: how a younger generation is reshaping American politics. 2a ed. New York: CQ Press, 2015.
DEVRIES, L.;GENSLER, S.;LEEFLANG, P. “Popularity of brand posts on brand fan pages: an investigation of the effects of social media marketing”. Journal of Interactive Marketing, vol. 26, nº 2, p. 83-91, mayo 2012.
DIMMICK, J.;CHEN, Y.;LI, Z. “Competition between the internet and traditional news media: the gratification-opportunities niche dimension”. Journal of Media Economics, vol. 17, nº 1, p. 19-33, 2004.
EVARTS, D.;GUIDO, H. “Coverage of the 1972 campaign by TV, news magazines and major newspapers”. Journalism Quarterly, vol. 51, nº 4, p. 645-648, dic. 1974.
FINKLE, S. E.; GEER, J. “A spot check: casting doubt on the demobilizing effect of attack advertising”. American Journal of Political Science, vol. 42, nº 2, p. 573-595, 1998.
FLEW, T. New media: an introduction. 3a ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007.
FRANZ, M.;RIDOUT, T. “Does political advertising persuade?”.Political Behavior, vol. 29, nº 4, p. 465-491, dic. 2007.
FREEDMAN, P.; GOLDSTEIN, K.“Measuring media exposure and the effects of negative campaign ads”. American Journal of Political Science, p. 1189-1208, 1999.
GARRAMONE, G. M. “Effects of negative political advertising: the roles of sponsor and rebuttal”. Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media, vol. 29, nº 2, p. 147-159, 1985.
GOLDSTEIN, K.;FREEDMAN, P. “Campaign advertising and voter turnout: new evidence for a stimulation effect”. The Journal of Politics, vol. 64, nº 3, p. 721-740, 2002.
HAIR, J.,et al. Multivariate data analysis. London: Prentice Hall, 2009.
HARRIS, R.;SANBORN, F. A cognitive psychology of mass communication. New York: Taylor & Francis Group, 2009.
HERRERO, J.;BENOIT, W. “Análisis funcional de los debates en las elecciones generales de 2008”. ZER:Revista de Estudios de Comunicación, vol. 14, nº 27, p. 61-81, sep. 2009.
IGAC –INSTITUTOGEOGRÁFICOAGUSTÍNCODAZZI. Mapeando la abstención electoral de Colombia en el siglo XXI, 2018.Disponible en: https://igac.gov.co/es/noticias/mapeando-la-abstencion-electoral-de-colombia-en-el-siglo-xxi/. Accesado el: 20 mayo 2020.
KAID, L. “TechnoDistortions and effects of the 2000 political advertising”. American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 44, nº 12, p. 2.370-2.378, ago. 2001.
KAID, L.;BACHA, C. Television advertising and democratic systems around the world: a comparison of videostyle content and effects. In: KAID, L.;BACHA, C. The Sagehandbook and political advertising. Newbury Park, California: Sage Publications, p. 445-458, 2006.
KAID, L.;POSTELNICU, M. “Political advertising in the 2004 election: comparison of traditional television and internet messages”. American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 49, nº 2, p. 265-278, oct. 2005.
KRIPPENDORFF, K. Content analysis: an introduction to its methodology. Los Ángeles: Sage Publications, 2018.
LARREGUY, H.;MARSHALL, J.; SNYDER, J. “Leveling the playing field: how campaign advertising can help non-dominant parties”. Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 16, nº 6, p. 1.812-1.849, abr. 2018.
LARSON, L.;DENTON, T. “eWOM Watchdogs: ego-threatening product domains and the policing of positive online reviews”. Psychology & Marketing, vol. 31, nº 9, p. 801-811, ago. 2014.
LEE, C.;BENOIT, W. “A functional analysis of the 2002 Korean presidential debates”. Asian Journal of Communication, vol. 15, nº 2, p. 115-132, 2005.
MANGOLD, W.;FAULDS, D. “Social media: the new hybrid element of the promotion mix”. Business Horizons, vol. 52, nº 4, p. 357-365, jul.-ago. 2009.
MERRITT, S. “Negative political advertising: some empirical findings”. Journal of Advertising, vol. 13, nº 3, p. 27-38, 1984.
NAVARRO, A., et al.“La distribución binomial negativa frente a la de Poisson en el análisis de fenómenos recurrentes”. Gaceta Sanitaria, vol. 15, nº 5, p. 447-452, 2001.
PATHAK, A.; KUMAR, S. “Independent regulation of tumor cell migration by matrix stiffness and confinement”. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 109, nº 26, p. 10334-10339, 2012.
PINKLETON, B. E.;UM, N. H.;AUSTIN, E. W. “An exploration of the effects of negative political advertising on political decision making”. Journal of Advertising, vol. 31, nº 1, p. 13-25, 2002.
RAO, A.;LEE, A.;KIM, H. “It’s time to vote: the effect of matching message orientation and temporal frame on political persuasion”. Journal of Consumer Research, vol. 35, nº 6, p. 877-889, abr. 2009.
RIDOUT, T. N.; FRANZ, M. M.; FOWLER, E. F. “Sponsorship, disclosure, and donors: limiting the impact of outside group ads”. Political Research Quarterly, vol. 68, nº 1, 154-166, 2015.
RIDOUT, T., et al.“The long-term and geographically constrained effects of campaign advertising on political polarization and sorting”. American Politics Research, vol. 46, nº 1, p. 3-25, jul. 2017.
SEERAT, S.;HANSANDALDEEP, K. “A content analysis of YouTube political advertisements: evidence from Indian parliamentary elections”. Journal of Creative Communications, vol. 13, nº 2, p. 133-156, abr. 2018.
SHAH, D., et al.“Campaign ads, online messaging, and participation: extending the communication mediation model”. Journal of Communication, vol. 57, nº 4, p. 676-703, dic. 2007.
SMITH, A. Digital politics: Pew Research findings on technology and campaign. Washington: Pew Internet Researcher, 2013.
SOHAL, S.;KAUR, H. “A content analysis of YouTube political advertisements: evidence from Indian parliamentary elections”. Journal of Creative Communications, vol. 13, nº 2, p. 133-156, abr. 2018.
SOLEY, L.;REID, L. “Promotional expenditures in U.S. congressional elections”. Journal of Marketing & Public Policy, vol. 1, p. 147-155, 1982.
SPENKUCH, J.;TONIATTI, D. “Political advertising and election results”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 133, nº 4, p. 1.981-2.036, mayo 2018.
TAFESSE, W.;KORNELIUSSEN, T. “Examining the effect of using multiple media tools on the marketing performance of organizations in a trade campaign environment”. Journal of Marketing Communications, vol. 19,nº 3, p. 1-13, ene. 2012.
VALENTINO, N.;HUTCHINGS, V.;WILLIAMS, D. “The impact of political advertising on knowledge, internet information seeking, and candidate preference”. Journal of Communication, vol. 54, nº 2, p. 337-354, jun. 2004.
VANSTEENBURG, E. “Areas of research in political advertising: a review and research agenda”. International Journal of Advertising, vol. 34, nº 2, p. 195-231, ene. 2015.
VERHOEF, J.;BOVENG, P. “Quasi‐Poisson vs. negative binomial regression: how should we model overdispersed count data?”. Ecology, vol. 88, nº 11, p. 2.766-2.772, nov. 2007.
WATTENBERG, M. P.;BRIANS, C. L. “Negative campaign advertising: demobilizer or mobilizer?”. American Political Science Review, vol. 93, nº 4, p. 891-899, 1999.
WILLIAMS, C.;GULATI, G. “Digital advertising expenditures in the 2016 presidential election”. Social Science Computer Review, vol. 36, nº 4, p. 406-421, sep. 2017.
![Creative Commons License](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2020 Opinião Pública