Palabras clave
Voto
Encuestas electorales
Voto estratégico
Votantes indecisos
Cómo citar
Resumen
Los resultados de las encuestas acerca de la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2022 divergieron de los resultados oficiales, lo que generó críticas según las cuales las encuestas habrían cometido errores. Este documento examina una explicación alternativa que los analistas a menudo tratan con escepticismo: qué cambios reales de intención de voto ocurrieron entre la última recopilación de datos y el día de las elecciones. Aunque impopular, esta explicación encuentra apoyo teórico en la literatura basada en dos procesos principales: votación estratégica y toma de decisiones retrasada. Usando un experimento realizado una semana antes de las elecciones, mostramos cómo
los votantes indecisos y los votantes de candidaturas menos competitivas mostraron una alta propensión a cambiar de opinión después de ver los mensajes de campaña. También utilizamos datos de encuestas de una de las últimas encuestas realizadas antes de las elecciones para desarrollar modelos que identifiquen a los votantes más propensos a cambios tardíos en la elección de votos y
reasignar sus votos para ajustar las distribuciones de votos. Los resultados sugieren que los cambios tardíos en las intenciones de voto pueden ser un fenómeno más que plausible en las recientes elecciones brasileñas.
Citas
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