Resumo
A Teoria Prospectiva, teoria psicológica de tomada de decisões que lançou uma nova luz sobre as escolhas em política externa, sustenta que as pessoas tendem a correr grandes riscos quando encontram perdas, enquanto que, quando antecipam ganhos, tendem a proceder com grande cautela. Este artigo introduz a teoria prospectiva ao estudo de política comparada para explicar as arrojadas escolhas da política econômica de presidentes em países em crise como Argentina, Brasil e Peru e o supreendente grau de apoio popular que tais medidas arriscadas e custosas tiveram nesses países. Da mesma forma procura entender o curso cauteloso das reformas recentes no Chile, um país com melhores projeções econômicas.
Abstract
Prospect theory, a psychological theory of decision making that has shed new light on foreign policy choices, maintains that people tend to take high risks when anticipating gains. This article introduces prospect theory to the study of comparative politics in order to account for the bold economic policy choices that presidents made in crisis-ridden Argentina, Brazil and Peru, and the surprising degree of popular support that such risky and costly measures commanded in these countries; and conversely, to explain the cautious course of reform recently pursued in Chile, a country with better economic prospects.
Keywords: Prospect Theory, Economic Restructuring, Electoral Behavior, Democracy, Latin America.
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