Palavras-chave
Como Citar
Resumo
Este artigo analisa, teórica e empiricamente, a “nova” política monetária, entendida, essencialmente, como o que se convencionou chamar regime de metas de inflação. Apesar de o presente artigo examinar o referido regime no âmbito dos países emergentes, o foco será centrado no caso brasileiro e na operacionalização da política monetária por parte do Banco Central desde 1999. O artigo inicia discutindo os fundamentos do regime de metas de inflação e, em seguida, examina a experiência das metas de inflação no Brasil. A experiência brasileira é comparada com a de outros países similares. O artigo conclui sugerindo que, embora o regime de metas de inflação possa obter o impacto pretendido, qual seja, reduzir e estabilizar o nível de preços, os países que não adotam regimes de metas de inflação também vivenciaram experiências similares de estabilização de preços. Ademais, a experiência brasileira com o regime de metas de inflação tem mostrado que a taxa de crescimento da economia é relativamente baixa e a inflação ainda é ligeiramente elevada.
Abstract
This paper is concerned with ‘new’ monetary policy, essentially what has come to be known as inflation targeting (IT). While the paper aims to examine this policy in the case of emerging countries, the focus is on Brazil and the application of this monetary policy framework in the case of this country since 1999. The paper begins by discussing the theoretical foundations and operational aspects of IT, before it turns to an examination of the experience of IT in Brazil. The Brazilian experience is compared and contrasted with that of other similar countries. The paper concludes by suggesting that although IT have had the intended impact, non-IT countries have also had a similar experience. Furthermore, the Brazilian experience with IT has been one of low growth and relatively high inflation.
Key words: Inflation targeting countries. Non-inflation targeting countries. Emerging country experience. Brazilian economy
Referências
ARESTIS, P.; SAWYER, M. Inflation targeting: a critical appraisal. Levy Economics Institute Working Paper, n. 388, Sept. 2003.
ARESTIS, P; PAULA, L. F.; FERRARI-FILHO, F. Inflation targeting in emerging countries: the case of Brazil. In: ARESTIS, P.; SAAD-FILHO, A. (Ed.). Political economy of Latin America: recent economic performance. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007a.
ARESTIS, P. Assessing the economic policies of President Lula da Silva in Brazil: has fear defeated hope? In: ARESTIS, P.; SAAD-FILHO, A. (Ed.). Political economy of Latin America: recent economic performance. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007b.
BALL, L.; SHERIDAN, N. Does inflation targeting matter? NBER Working Paper Series, n. 9577, p. 1-47, 2003.
BANCO CENTRAL DO BRASIL. Disponível em: . Acesso em: dez. 2006.
BARBOSA-FILHO, N. Inflation targeting in Brazil: 1999-2006. 2007. Disponível em: .
BARRO, R. J.; GORDON, D. B. A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model. Journal of Political Economy, v. 91, n. 3, p. 589-619, 1983.
BERNANKE, B. S.; GERTLER, M. Monetary policy and asset price volatility. In: New Challenges for Monetary Policy, Proceedings of the Symposium Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Aug. 26-28, 1999.
BERNANKE, B. S.; GERTLER, M GILCHRIST, S. The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework. In: TAYLOR, J.; WOODFORD, M. (Ed.). Handbook of macroeconomics. Amsterdam: North Holland, 1999. v. 1.
BERNANKE, B. S; MISHKIN, F. S. Inflation targeting: a new framework for monetary policy? Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 11, n. 2, p. 97-116, 1997.
BOGDANSKI, J.; TOMBINI, A. A.; WERLANG, S. R. Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, jul. 2000. p. 1-29, 2000. (Working Papers Series).
CALVO, G. On the time consistency of optimal policy in the monetary economy. Econometrica, v. 46, n. 4, p. 1411-1428, 1978.
CLARIDA, R.; GALÍ, J.; GERTLER, M. Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 115, n. 1, p. 147- 180, 2000.
DEBELLE, G.; FISCHER, S. How independent should a Central Bank be? In: FUHRER, J. C. (Ed.). Goals, guidelines, and constraints facing monetary policymakers. Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1994.
DE FIORE, F.; LIU, Z. Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules. Frankfurt: European Central Bank, 2002. (Working Paper, n. 173).
DEUTSCHE BANK RESEARCH. Disponível em: . Acesso em: dez. 2006.
EICHENGREEN, B. Can emerging markets float? Should they inflation target? Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, fev. 2002. p. 1-46, 2002. (Working Papers Series).
FERRARI-FILHO, F.; PAULA, L.F. The legacy of the Real Plan and an alternative agenda for the Brazilian economy. Investigación Económica, 244, p. 57-92, 2003.
FERREIRA, A. B. Metas para a inflação e vulnerabilidade externa: um estudo do Brasil. Dissertação (Mestrado)–CEDEPLAR/UFMG, Belo Horizonte, 2004.
FIGUEIREDO, F. M.; FERREIRA, T.P. Os preços administrados e a inflação no Brasil. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, dez. 2002. p. 1-32. (Working Papers Series).
FISCHER, S. Modern Central Banking. In: CAPIE, F.; GOODHART, C.; FISCHER, S.; SCHNADT, N. (Ed.). The future of Central Banking. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994.
GARFINKEL, M. R.; OH, S. Strategic discipline in monetary policy with private information: optimal targeting horizons. American Economic Review, v. 83, n. 1, p. 99- 117, 1993.
GOMES, C.; AIDAR, O. Metas inflacionárias, preços livres e administrados no Brasil. In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ECONOMIA POLÍTICA, 10, Campinas, 2005. Anais...
IADB – INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK. Unlocking credit: the quest for deep and stable bank lending. Washington: IADB, 2005.
IBGE – INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA.. Disponível em: . Acesso em: dez. 2006.
IMF – INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. International Financial Statistics Yearbook. Washington: IMF, 2007.
IPEADATA. Disponível em: . Acesso em: dez. 2006.
JOHNSON, D. R. The effect of inflation targets on the level of expected inflation in five countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 85, n. 4, p. 1076-1081, 2003.
KING, M. The inflation target ten years on. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Summer, v. 42, n. 4, p. 459-474, 2002.
KREGEL, J. Was there an alternative to the Brazilian crisis? Revista de Economia Política, v. 19, n. 3, p. 23-38, 1999.
KYDLAND, F.; PRESCOTT, E. C. Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy, v. 85, n. 3, p. 473-492, 1977.
MENDONÇA, H. O efeito dos preços administrados na taxa de juros brasileira. In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ECONOMIA POLÍTICA, 10, Campinas, 2005. Anais...
MINELLA, A.; FREITAS, P.; GOLDFAJN, I.; MUINHOS, M. Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility. Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, nov. 2003. p. 1-32. (Working Papers Series, n. 77).
MISHKIN, F. S. What should Central Banks do? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, v. 82, n. 6, p. 1-13, 2000.
NAKANO, Y. O regime monetário e de dívida pública brasileira e a alta taxa de juros. Revista de Conjuntura Econômica, v. 59, n. 11, p. 10-12, 2005.
PAULA, L. F.; ALVES JR., A. J. Banking behaviour and the Brazilian economy after the Real Plan: a post-Keynesian approach. BNL Quarterly Review, 227, p. 337-365, 2003.
SCHMIDT-HEBEL, K.; WERNER, A. Inflation targeting in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico: performance, credibility, and the exchange rate. Santiago de Chile: Banco Central de Chile, 2002. (Documentos de Trabajo, n. 171).
SOUZA, F. E.; HOFF, C. O regime cambial brasileiro: 7 anos de flutuação. 2006. Disponível em: <http://www.ie.ufrj.br/conjuntura/pdfs/TextoRedeMercosul.pdf>.
STERNE, G. Inflation targets in a global context. In: LOAYZA, N.; SOTO, R. (Ed.). Inflation targeting: design, performance, challenges. Chile: Central Bank of Chile, 2002.
SVENSSON, L. E. O. Commentary on Meyer: practical problems and obstacles to inflation targeting. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, v. 86, n. 4, p. 161-164, 2004.
TAYLOR, J. B. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, p. 195-214, Dec. 1993.
A Economia e Sociedade utiliza a licença do Creative Commons (CC), preservando assim, a integridade dos artigos em ambiente de acesso aberto.
Downloads
