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O Fed antes da crise: erros de percepção ou de concepção? análise das atas do FOMC e de falas de Greenspan e de Bernanke de 2001 a 2007
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Palavras-chave

Federal Reserve. Política monetária 2001-2007. Risk management approach.

Como Citar

FERRARA, Daniel Nicolau; CARVALHO, Carlos Eduardo. O Fed antes da crise: erros de percepção ou de concepção? análise das atas do FOMC e de falas de Greenspan e de Bernanke de 2001 a 2007. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 23, n. 3, p. 757–792, 2015. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8642133. Acesso em: 21 abr. 2024.

Resumo

O artigo discute as percepções do Federal Reserve – Fed – nos anos de formação da bolha imobiliária para avaliar se o BC norte-americano subestimou os riscos ou preferiu conviver com eles. No rescaldo das crises de 2001-2002, o Fed considerava o consumo e o mercado imobiliário forças importantes para a recuperação econômica. A partir de 2003-2004, membros do Federal Open Market Comittee – FOMC –passaram a mostrar preocupação com os riscos dos processos em curso no mercado imobiliário e com os efeitos de uma possível reversão da política monetária expansionista sobre os preços dos imóveis, mas daí não resultou a adoção de iniciativas firmes para conter o que se revelaria uma bolha especulativa de grandes proporções. A leniência do Fed pode ser atribuída à crença na resiliência do sistema financeiro diante de crises, à confiança na condução pragmática da política monetária orientada pelo risk management approach e à convicção de que um BC não deve adotar medidas especiais para conter a formação de bolhas especulativas. O artigo analisa as atas das reuniões do FOMC de 2001 a 2007 e alguns pronunciamentos dos presidentes do Fed, naqueles anos, Greenspan e Bernanke, de modo a compreender as percepções do Fed diante dos processos em curso. A análise de atas e pronunciamentos se justifica porque a comunicação com o mercado se tornara instrumento relevante para o Fed na execução da política monetária desde os anos 1990.

 

Abstract

The article discusses the perceptions of the Fed in the years preceding the formation of the housing bubble to assess whether there was underestimation of risk or choice to live with them. In the aftermath of the crises of 2001-2002, Fed used to acknowledge consumption and housing market to be important forces in the economic recovery. From 2003-2004, the FOMC members were concerned about the speculative behavior in housing market and the effects the reversal of the expansionary monetary policy would have on property prices and on consumption, but, in spite of this perception, the FED did not adopt any initiative to contain what would prove to be a bubble of huge proportions. The Fed’s action to combat these threats was restrained by the belief in the strength of the deregulated financial system, by pragmatic confidence in the conduct of monetary policy guided by the risk management approach and the belief that the Central Bank should not act against the formation of bubbles. The article reviews the minutes of the FOMC and some pronouncements of the presidents of the Fed during the period, Greenspan and Bernanke, in order to understand the perceptions of the Fed on the ongoing process. The review of the FOMC´s minutes and speeches are justified because the communication with the market has become a relevant instrument of Fed’s monetary policy actions since the 1990s.

Key-words: Federal Reserve; Monetary policy 2001-2007; Risk management approach.

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Referências

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