Um modelo dinâmico de macroeconomia aberta com metas de inflação, conflito distributivo e equilíbrio na conta corrente

Autores

Palavras-chave:

Metas de inflação, Política monetária, Economia aberta, Economia pós-keynesiana, Conflito distributivo.

Resumo

O artigo discute, sob uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana, o impacto do regime de metas de inflação sobre o crescimento, a distribuição e a estabilidade em uma economia aberta. O modelo combina a barganha salarial, as variações na capacidade utilizada e o equilíbrio em conta corrente para mostrar que a política monetária tem um impacto real sobre o crescimento e o emprego no longo prazo – i.e. existe um trade-off entre inflação e crescimento. São analisadas as implicações de uma regra de política monetária que leva em conta o equilíbrio em conta corrente. Mostra-se que esta regra poderia ser importante para sustentar a estabilidade no longo prazo, na medida em que evita a possibilidade de aumentos explosivos no estoque da dívida externa. Um modelo dinâmico de macroeconomia aberta com metas de inflação, conflito distributivo e equilíbrio na conta corrente

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.

Biografia do Autor

Carlos Eduardo Drumond, Universidade Federal do Paraná

Possui graduação em Ciências Econômicas pela Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana - UEFS e Mestrado e Doutorado em Desenvolvimento Econômico pelo PPGDE - UFPR.

Referências

ARESTIS, P.; SAWYER, M. Inflation targeting: a critical appraisal. The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Sept. 2003a. (Working Paper).

ARESTIS, P.; SAWYER, M The effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Levy Economics Institute, 2003b. (Working Paper, n. 369).

ARESTIS, P.; SAWYER, M New consensus macroeconomics and inflation targeting: Keynesian critique. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, v. 17, Número especial, p. 631-655, dez. 2008.

ARESTIS, P.; SAWYER, M. Monetary policy when money is endogenous. In: COMPLEXITY, endogenous money and macroeconomic theory: essays in honour of Basil J. Moore. 2006. p. 221-235.

BARBOSA, N. Inflation targeting in Brazil: 1999-2006. In: EPSTEIN, G.; YELDAN, E. (Ed.). Beyond inflation targeting: Central Bank policy for employment creation, poverty reduction and sustainable growth. Edward Elgar, 2008.

BASTOS P.; WRIGHT P. Exchange rates and wages in unionised labour markets. University of Nottingham, GEP, 2009. (Discussion Papers, 10/15).

BEVILAQUA, A. S.; MESQUITA M.; MINELLA, A. Brazil: taming inflation expectations. Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department, 2007. (Working Papers Series, n. 129).

BERNANKE, B. et al. Inflation targeting: lessons from the international experience. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999.

BERTRAND, M. From the invisible handshake to the invisible hand? How import competition changes the employment relationship. Journal of Labor Economics, v. 22, n. 4, 2004.

BLECKER, R. A. Kaleckian macro models for open economies. In: DEPREZ, J.; HARVEY, J. T. (Ed.). Foundations of international economics: post Keynesian perspectives. London: Routledge, 1999. p. 116-149.

BLECKER, R. A. Open economy models of distribution and growth. Paper to be presented at the Eastern Economic Association annual meeting, Philadelphia, PA, Feb. 28, 2010.

CAMPA, J. M.; GOLDBERG L. S. Employment versus wage adjustment and the U.S.dollar. The Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 83, n. 3, 2001.

CALVO, G.; REINHART, C. Fixing for you life. NBER, 2000. (Working Paper).

DAVIDSON, P. Controversies in post Keynesian economics. London: Edward Elgar, 1991.

DEQUECH, D. Asset choice, liquidity preference, and rationality under uncertainty. Journal of Economic Issues, 54, p. 159-76, 2000.

FONTANA G.; SETTERFIELD M. Macroeconomics, endogenous money and contemporary financial crisis: a teaching model. J. Pluralism and Economics Education, vl. 1, n.. 1/2, p. 130-147, 2009.

GALINDO, L. M.; ROS, J. Inflation targeting Mexico: an empirical appraisal. International Review of Applied Economics, Mar. 2008.

GOLDFAJN, I.; WERLANG, S. The pass-through from depreciation to inflation: a panel study. Central Bank of Brazil, 2000. (Working Paper, n. 5).

GOODFRIEND, M. Monetary policy in the new neoclassical synthesis: a primer. Economic Quartely, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, v. 90/3, summer, 2004.

HICKS, J. Mr. Keynes and the classics: a suggested interpretation. Econometrica, Apr. 1937.

KHAN, M. S.; SENHADJI, A. S. Threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth. IMF, Jun. 2000. (Working Paper).

LAVOIE, M. The new consensus on monetary policy seen from a post-Keynesian perspective. In: LAVOIE, M.; SECCARECCIA, M. (Ed.). Central banking in the modern world: alternative perspectives. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2004. p. 15-34.

LIMA, G. T.; SETTERFIELD, M. Inflation targeting and macroeconomic stability in a post Keynesian economy. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 30, p. 435-461, 2008.

MCCOMBIE, J. S. L.; THIRLWALL A. P. Economic growth and the balance of payments constraint. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1994.

MARGLIN, S. A.; BHADURI, A. Profit squeeze and Keynesian theory. In: MARGLIN, S.

A.; SCHOR, J. B. (Ed.). The golden age of capitalism. Oxford University Press, 1990.

MELLO, L. de et al. Monetary policies and inflation targeting in emerging economies.

OCDE, 2008.

MISHKIN, F. International experiences with different monetary policy regimes. NBER, Feb. 1999. (Working Paper, 6965).

MISHKIN, F. What should central banks do? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, v. 82, n. 6, p. 1-13, 2000.

MOORE, B. J. Shaking the invisible hand: complexity, endogenous money and exogenous interest rates. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2006.

MUNDELL, R. Inflation and real interest. Journal of Political Economy, v. 71, n. 3, 1963.

OREIRO, J. L. C.; ROCHA, M. A. A experiência internacional de regimes de metas de inflação: uma análise de painel dinâmico. Nova Economia (UFMG), v. 18, p. 267-291, 2008.

OREIRO, J. L. C; NEVES, A. L. Acumulação de capital, utilização da capacidade produtiva e inflação. Uma análise a partir de um modelo pós-keynesiano não linear. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, v. 19, n. 1 (38), abr. 2010.

REVENGA, A. L. Exporting jobs? the impact of import competition on employment and wages in U.S. manufacturing. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 107, n. 1, 1992.

ROMER, D. Keynesian macroeconomics without the LM curve. Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 14, n. 2, p. 149-169, 2000.

ROWTHORN, R. Conflict, inflation and money. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1, p. 215-239, 1977.

SAREL, M. Nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth. IMF Staff Papers, v. 43, n. 1, p. 199-215, 1996.

SETTERFIELD, M. Is inflation targeting compatible with post Keynesian economics? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 28, p. 653-671, 2006.

SCHMIDT-HEBBEL, K.; TAPIA, M. Inflation targeting in Chile. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, v. 13, p. 125-146, 2002.

SORENSEN, P. B.;WHITTA-JACOBSEN, H. J. Introducing advanced macroeconomics: growth and business cycles. New York: McGraw-Hill, 2005.

SVENSSON, L. E. O. Open-economy inflation targeting. Journal of International Economics, v. 50, n. 1, p. 155-183, Feb. 2000.

TAYLOR, J. B. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, p. 195-214, 1993.

TAYLOR, J. B Teaching modern macroeconomics at the principles level. The American Economic Review, v. 90, n. 2, p. 90-94, May 2000.

THIRLWALL, A. P. The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rates differences. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, 128, p. 45-53, 1979.

TOBIN, J. Money and economic growth. Econometrica, v. 33, n. 4, p. 671-684, 1965.

WOODFORD, Michael. Inflation targeting and optimal monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, v. 86, n. 4, p. 15-41, Jul./Aug. 2004.

Downloads

Publicado

2015-12-11

Como Citar

DRUMOND, C. E.; PORCILE, G. Um modelo dinâmico de macroeconomia aberta com metas de inflação, conflito distributivo e equilíbrio na conta corrente. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 22, n. 3, p. 675–695, 2015. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8642180. Acesso em: 29 nov. 2022.

Edição

Seção

Artigos