Palavras-chave
Hyman P.. Hipótese de Instabilidade Financeira. Crises financeiras
Como Citar
Resumo
O presente artigo propõe que, a despeito de alguns elementos invariantes fundamentais, a forma de exposição do conceito central da obra de Minsky, a Hipótese de Instabilidade Financeira, variou significativamente ao longo de seu período de produção acadêmica; avalia, ademais, que a forma tradicional em que tal conceito é exposto não incorpora elementos importantes das últimas e mais maduras contribuições do autor; afirma ainda que tal forma canônica é insuficiente para lidar com o fenômeno das crises financeiras contemporâneas, por carecer de atualização que incorpore mudanças institucionais recentes.
Abstract
This paper proposes that, in spite of some fundamental invariant aspects, the way of exposition of the Minsky’s work central concept – the so called Financial Instability Hypothesis – changed significantly throughout his academic productive period; furthermore it assesses the traditional way this concept is exposed does not incorporate important elements from the latest and more mature Minsky’s contributions. The paper still states this canonical way to be insufficient to treat contemporary financial crisis phenomenon for lack of updating which incorporates recent institutional changes.
Key words: Minsky, Hyman P.. Financial Instability Hypothesis. Two prices model; Financial crises. Institutional changes
Referências
ARROW, K.; DEBREU, G. Existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy. Econometrica, 22, 1954.
BARNETT, W. A.; GEWECKE, J.; SHELL, K. (Org.). Economic complexity: chaos, sunspots, bubbles and non-linearities. Proceedings from the Fourth International Symposium in Economic Theory and Econometrics, 1989.
BERLIN, I. The hedgehog and the fox. New York: Simon and Schuster, 1953.
CARVALHO, F. et al. Economia monetária e financeira: teoria e política. Rio de Janeiro: Campus, 2000.
CHICK, V. Macroeconomics after Keynes: a reconsideration of the General Theory. Oxford: Philip Allan, 1983. Trad. Port. Macroeconomia após Keynes: um reexame da Teoria Geral. Rio de Janeiro: Forense Universitária, 1993.
DAVIDSON, P. Post Keynesian macroeconomic theory: a foundation for successful economic policies for the Twenty-first Century. Aldershot: Edward Elgar, 1994.
DE PAULA, L. F.; ALVES JR., A. J. Vulnerabilidade externa e ataques especulativos: a experiência brasileira recente. In: FERRARI FILHO, F.; DE PAULA, L. F. (Org.).
Globalização financeira: ensaios de macroeconomia aberta. Petrópolis: Vozes, 2004. DYMSKI, G. “Economia de bolha” e crise financeira no Leste Asiático e na Califórnia: uma perspectiva espacializada de Minsky. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, n. 11, dez. 1998.
________; POLLIN, R. Hyman Minsky as a hedgehog: the power of the Wall Street paradigm. In: FAZZARI, S.; PAPADIMITRIOU, D. (Org.). Financial conditions and macroeconomic performance: essays in Honor of Hyman P. Minsky. London: M.E. Sharpe, 1992.
FAZZARI, S. Introduction: conversations with Hyman Minsky. In: FAZZARI, S.; PAPADIMITRIOU, D. (Org.). Financial conditions and macroeconomic performance: essays in Honor of Hyman P. Minsky. London, M.E. Sharpe, 1992.
________; PAPADIMITRIOU, D. (Org.). Financial conditions and macroeconomic performance: essays in Honor of Hyman P. Minsky. London, M.E. Sharpe, 1992.
FERRI, P. From business cycles to the economics of instability. In: FAZZARI, S.; PAPADIMITRIOU, D. (Org.). Financial conditions and macroeconomic performance: essays in Honor of Hyman P. Minsky. London, M.E. Sharpe, 1992.
________; MINSKY, H. Market processes and thwarting systems. The Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Papers, n. 64, 1991.
FISHER, I. The debt-deflation theory of the great depressions. Econometrica, 1, 1933.
FOLEY, D.K. Financial fragility in developing countries. New York: New School University, Jun. 7, 2000.
FRIEDMAN, M.; SAVAGE, L. The utility analysis of choices involving risk. The Review of Economic Studies, n. 2, 1948.
GOODWIN, R. A growth cycle. In: FEINSTEIN, C. (Org.). Socialism, capitalism and economic growth. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1967.
HICKS, J. Trade cycle. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1950.
________. Methods of dynamic analysis. In: 25 ECONOMIC essays in English, Germany and Scandinavian Languages. Estocolmo: Ekonomisk Tidschrift, 1956. Republicado em HICKS, J. Money, interest and wages. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1982. Collected Essays on Economic Theory, v. 2).
KALECKI, M. The principle of increasing risk. Economica, 4 (new series), p. 440-447, 1937.
KEYNES, J. M. A treatise on probability, 1921. In: MOGGRIDGE, D. (Org.). The collected writings of John Maynard Keynes. London: Macmillan, 1973. v. VIII, cap. I.
________. The General Theory of employment, interest and money. New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1936. Trad. port. A teoria geral do emprego, do juro e da moeda. São Paulo: Atlas, 1982.
________. The General Theory of employment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51, 1937b. Tradução port. A teoria geral do emprego. In: SZMRECSÁNYI, T. (Org.). Keynes. 2. ed. São Paulo: Ática, 1984. (Coleção Grandes Cientistas Sociais).
KINDLEBERGER, C. Manias, panics and crashes: a history of financial crises. New York: Basic Books, 1978. Edição revisada, 1989. Trad. port. Manias, pânicos e crashes: um histórico das crises financeiras. Rio de Janeiro: Nova Fronteira, 2000.
KNIGHT, F. Risk, uncertainty and profit. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1921.
KREGEL, J. Margins of safety and weight of the argument in generating financial fragility. Journal of Economic Issues, v. XXXI, n. 2, Jun. 1997.
________. Yes, ‘it’ did happen again: a Minsky crisis happened in Asia. Jerome Levy Institute, 1998. (Working Paper, n. 235).
LORENZ, H.W. Nonlinear dynamical economic and chaotic motion. New York: Springler-Verlag, 1989.
MINSKY, H. Central banking and money market changes. Quarterly Journal of Economics, n. 71, May 1957a. Reimpresso em MINSKY, H. Can it happen again? Essays on instability and finance. New York: M.E. Sharp, 1982a.
________. Monetary systems and accelerator models. American Economic Review, n. 47, Dec. 1957b. Reimpresso em Minsky (1982a).
________. A linear model of cyclical growth. Review of Economic and Statistics, 61, May 1959. Reimpresso em Gordon e Klein (Org.). AEA Readings in Business Cycles, Homewood: R.D. Irwin, 10, 1965.
________. Can it happen again? In: CARSO, E. (Org.). Banking and monetary studies. Homewood: R.D. Irwin, 1963. Reimpresso em Minsky (1982a).
________. The integration of simple growth and cycle models. In: BRENNAN, M. (Org.).
Patterns of market behaviour. Essays in honor of Philip Taft. Rhode Island: Brown University Press, 1965. Reimpresso em Minsky (1982a).
________. Financial instability revisited: the economics of disaster. In: FUNDAMENTAL reappraisal of the Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism. Board of Governors, Federal Reserve System, 1972a. Minsky (1982a).
________. An exposition of the Keynesian theory of investment. In: MATHEMATICAL methods in investment and finance. Amsterdam: Elsevier/North Holland, 1972b. Reimpresso em Minsky (1982a).
________. The modelling of financial instability: an introduction. Modelling and Simulation, v. 5, 1974.
________. John Maynard Keynes. New York: Columbia University Press, 1975a.
________. Suggestions for a cash-flow oriented bank examinations. Proceedings of a Conference on Bank Structure and Competition. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1975b.
________. The financial instability hypothesis: a reestatement. Thames Papers in Political Economy, North East London Polytechnic, 1978a. Reimpresso em Minsky (1982a).
________. The Federal Reserve: between a rock and a hard place. Challenge, n. 23, MayJun. 1980a. Reimpresso em Minsky (1982a).
MINSKY, H. Capitalist financial processes and the instability of capitalism. Journal of Economic Issues, n. 14, Jun. 1980b. Reimpresso em Minsky (1982a).
________. Can it happen again? Essays on instability and finance. New York: M.E. Sharp, 1982a.
________. Debt deflation processes in today’s institutional environment. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, n. 143, Dec. 1982b.
________. Beginnings. Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, n. 154, Sept. 1985.
________. Stabilizing an unstable economy. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1986.
________. Financing activities in the 1990’s: the impact of financial structure and initial conditions upon system performance. Apresentado na mostra de trabalhos “Economic Problems of the 1990’s: the America, Europe and Pacific”, Knoxville, EUA, Jun. 30, 1990.
________. Reconstituting the United States’ financial structure: some fundamental issues.
The Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Papers, n. 69, Jan. 1992.
________. Financial instability and the decline (?) of banking: public policy implications.
The Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Papers, n. 127, Oct. 1994a.
________. Integração financeira e política monetária. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, n. 3, dez. 1994b.
________. The essential characteristics of post Keynesian economics. In: DELEPLACE, G.; NELL, E. (Org.). Money in motion: the post Keynesian and the circulation approaches. London: Macmillan, 1996b.
________; WHALEN, C. Economic insecurity and the institutional prerequisites for successful capitalism. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 19, n. 2, Winter 1996.
ORMEROD, P. Butterfly economics. London: Farber and Farber, 1998. Trad. port. O efeito borboleta. Rio de Janeiro: Campus, 2000.
PORCILE, G., CURADO, M.; BARHY, R. Crescimento com restrição no balanço de pagamentos e “fragilidade financeira” no sentido minskyano: uma abordagem macroeconômica para a América Latina”. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, v. 12, n. 1 (20), jan./jun. 2003.
POSSAS, M. L. Dinâmica da economia capitalista: uma abordagem teórica. São Paulo: Brasiliense, 1987.
PRIGOGINE, I. L’ordre par fluctuations et le système social. Bruxelas, 1974. Mimeografado.
RAMSEY, J. Economic and financial data as nonlinear processes. In: DWYER JR., G.; HAFER, R. (Org.). The stock market: bubbles, volatility, and chaos. Proceedings of the Thirteen Annual Economic Policy Conference of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 1989.
ROSSER JR., J. Complex dynamics in new Keynesian and post Keynesian economics. 1997. Mimeografado.
SAMUELSON, P. Interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration. Review of Economics and Statistics, 21, 1938.
SCHUMPETER, J. Science and ideology. American Economic Review, v. 39, n. 1, Mar. 1949.
________. Ten great economists: from Marx to Keynes. New York: Oxford University Press, 1951.
SHACKLE, G. Expectations in economics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1952.
TOBIN, J. A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. The Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, n. 1, Feb. 1969.
________. Asset accumulation and economic activity. Oxford: Basil Blackwell, 1980. Tradução port. Acumulação de ativos e atividade econômica. São Paulo: Vértice, 1987.
VEBLEN, T. Theory of business enterprise. New York: Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1904.
VERCELLI, A. Methodological foundations of macroeconomics: Keynes and Lucas. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991.
________. Por uma macroeconomia não reducionista: uma perspectiva de longo prazo. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, n. 3, dez. 1994.
A Economia e Sociedade utiliza a licença do Creative Commons (CC), preservando assim, a integridade dos artigos em ambiente de acesso aberto.
Downloads
