Banner Portal
Notas sobre a crescente (e peculiar) fragilidade financeira do capitalismo norte-americano
PDF

Palavras-chave

Fragilidade financeira. DesequilÌbrios patrimoniais. Economia norte-americana

Como Citar

SANTOS, C. H. Notas sobre a crescente (e peculiar) fragilidade financeira do capitalismo norte-americano. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 13, n. 2, p. 23–49, 2016. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8643052. Acesso em: 1 mar. 2024.

Resumo

Este artigo discute as raÌzes teÛricas e a base empÌrica do chamado diagnÛstico keynesianoestruturalista sobre a insustentabilidade das atuais polÌticas macroeconÙmicas dos Estados Unidos, associado aos nomes de Wynne Godley, Lance Taylor e John Eatwell, dentre outros. O artigo contrasta o referido diagnÛstico com visıes alternativas e argumenta que a posiÁ„o keynesianoestruturalista parece mais plausÌvel do que nunca a esse ponto.

Abstract

This paper reviews the theoretical roots and empirical basis of the so-called ìStructuralistKeynesianî view on the unsustainability of current U.S. macroeconomic policies, associated with the names of Wynne Godley, Lance Taylor and John Eatwell, among others. It contrasts it with other views on the issue and argues that the case for the Structuralist-Keynesian view remains as strong as ever.

Key words: Financial fragility. Financial imbalances. U.S. economy

PDF

Referências

ARESTIS, P.; KARAKITSOS, E. The sustainability of economic recovery in the United States: the risks to consumption and investment. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, 2004. (Public Policy Brief, n. 77).

ASIMAKOPULOS, A. Keynes’s general theory and accumulation. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 1991.

BACKUS, D.; BRAINARD, W.; SMITH, G.; TOBIN, J. A model of the U.S. financial and non-financial economic behavior. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, v. 12, n. 2, p. 259-293, May 1980.

BAKER, D. Bursting bubbles: why the economy will go from bad to worse. Washington, D.C.: Center for Economic Policy Research, 2003.

BELLUZZO, L.; ALMEIDA, J. Economia brasileira: da crise da dÌvida aos impasses do Real. Campinas: Unicamp. Instituto de Economia, 2002. (Mimeogr.).

BERGSTEN, C. F. The risks ahead for the world economy. The Economist, 372 (8.391), Sept. 2004.

BERNANKE, B. Balance sheets and the recovery. Discurso proferido no 41st Annual Winter Institute, St. Cloud State University, St. Cloud, Minnesota, 21 fev. 2003. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/default.htm/>.

BIES, S. The economic outlook and the state of household and business finances. Discurso proferido no New York Forecasters Club, New York, 26 fev. 2004. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/>.

BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK ñ FED. Flow of funds accounts of the United States. Washington, D.C., Jun. 2004a.

________. Assets and liabilities of commercial banks in the United States. Washington, D.C., Aug. 2004b.

________. Household debt service and financial obligations ratios. Washington, D.C., Jul. 2004c.

BRAINARD, W.; TOBIN, J. Pitfalls in financial model building. American Economic Review, v. 58, n. 2, p. 99-122, May 1968.

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ñ BEA. National income and product accounts.

Washington, D.C., Aug. 2004a.

________. Gross-domestic-product-by-industry accounts, 1998-2003. Washington, D.C., Jun. 2004b.

________. International investment position. Washington, D.C., Jun. 2004c.

________. U. S. international transactions accounts data. Washington, D.C., Sept. 2004d.

CASE, K.; QUIGLEY, J.; SHILLER, R. Comparing wealth effects: the stock market versus the housing market. New Haven, 2001. (Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper, n. 1.335).

CHINN, M. Doomed to deficits? Aggregate U.S. trade flows re-examined. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003. (Working Paper, n. 9.521).

CHRIST, C. A simple macroeconomic model with a government budget restraint. The Journal of Political Economy, v. 76, n. 1, p. 53-67, Jan./Feb. 1968.

CRUZ, P. Dívida externa e política macroeconômica. S„o Paulo: Braziliense, 1984.

DAVIDSON, P. Money and the real world. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1972 DAVIS, M., PALUMBO, M. A primer on the economics and time series econometrics of wealth effects. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board, 2001. (Working Paper, n. 2001-9).

DAWSON, J. (Org.). Flow of funds analysis: a guide to practitioners. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1996.

DOS SANTOS, C. A stock-flow consistent general framework for formal Minskyan analyses of closed economies. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, 2004a. (Working Paper, n. 403). A ser publicado no Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics.

________. Keynesian theorizing during hard times: stock-flow consistent models as an unexplored ëfrontierí of Keynesian macroeconomics. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, 2004b. (Working Paper, n. 408).

EATWELL, J.; TAYLOR, L. The American stock-flow trap. Challenge, v. 42, n. 5, p. 34-49, Sept./Oct. 1999.

FERGUSON, R. Macroeconomic outlook and uncertainties. Discurso proferido no Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, California, 8 abr. 2004. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/>.

FISHER, I. The debt-deflation theory of great depressions. Econometrica, v. 1, n. 1, p. 337-357, Oct. 1933.

FOLEY, D.; TAYLOR, L. A heterodox growth and distribution model. Presented at ìGrowth and Distribution Conferenceî, University of Pisa, Jun. 16-19, 2004.

GERTLER, M. Financial structure and aggregate economic activity: an overview. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, v. 20, n. 3, p. 559-588, Aug. 1988.

GODLEY, W. Keynes and the management of real national income and expenditure. In: WORSWICK, G.; TREVITHICK, J. (Ed.). Keynes and the modern world. Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press, 1983.

________. Money, finance and national income determination: an integrated approach. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, 1996. (Working Paper, n. 167).

________. Money and credit in a Keynesian model of income determination. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 23, n. 2, p. 393-411, Apr. 1999a.

________. Seven unsustainable processes. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, 1999b. (Special Report).

________; CRIPPS, F. Macroeconomics. London: Fontana, 1983.

________; IZURIETA, A. Strategic prospects and policies for the U.S. Economy. Strategic Analysis. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-onHudson, 2002.

________; IZURIETA, A.; ZEZZA, G. Prospects and policies for the U.S. economy: why net exports must now be the motor for U.S. growth. Strategic Analysis. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, 2004.

GODLEY, W.; MCCARTHY, G. Fiscal policy will matter. Challenge, v. 41, n. 1, p. 38- 54, Jan./Fev. 1998.

GREENSPAN, A. The Federal Reserve’s report on monetary policy. Testemunho ao comitÍ de bancos, habitaÁ„o e questıes urbanas do Senado dos EUA. Washington, July 20th, 2000. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/ boarddocs/hh/>.

________. Understanding household debt obligations. Discurso proferido na ìCredit Union National Association 2004 Governmental Affairs Conferenceî. Washington, 23 Feb. 2004a. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/ boarddocs/speeches/2004/>.

________. The Federal Reserve’s semiannual report on monetary policy. Testemunho ao comitÍ de bancos, habitaÁ„o e questıes urbanas do Senado dos EUA. Washington, 20 jul. 2004b. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/ boarddocs/hh/>.

________. Government-sponsored enterprises. Testemunho ao comitÍ de bancos, habitaÁ„o e questıes urbanas do Senado dos EUA. Washington, 24 fev. 2004c. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2004/>.

HOOPER, P.; JOHNSON, K.; MARQUEZ, J. Trade elasticities for G7 countries. International Finance Discussion Series. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board, 1998. (Working Paper, n. 609).

HOUTHAKKER, H. S.; MAGEE, Stephen P. Income and price elasticities in world trade. Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 51, n. 2, p. 111-125, May 1969.

JOHNSON, D.; PARKER, J.; SOULELES, N. Household expenditure and the income tax rebates of 2001. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004. (Working Paper, n. 10.784).

JOHNSON, K. Convenience or necessity? Understanding the recent rise in credit card debt. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board, 2004. (Working Paper, n. 2004-47).

JUSTER, F.; LUPTON, J.; SMITH, J.; STAFFORD, F. The decline in household saving and the wealth effect. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board, 2004. (Working Paper, n. 2004-32).

KALDOR, N. The dollar crisis. In: ________. Collected economic essays. London: Duckworth, 1978. v. 6: Further essays on applied economics.

KALECKI, M. Professor Pigou on the ëClassical Stationary Stateí ñ A comment. Economic Journal, v. 54, n. 213, p. 131-132, Apr. 1944.

KEYNES, J. M. The general theory of employment, interest and money. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 1997.

KOHN, D. Monetary policy and imbalances. Banking and Finance Lecture Series, Widener University, PA, Apr. 1st 2004. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/ boarddocs/speeches/2004/>.

KRUGMAN, P.; BALDWIN, R. The persistence of the U.S. trade deficit. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, The Brookings Institution, p. 1-56, 1987.

LAVOIE, M.; GODLEY, W. Kaleckian growth models in a stock and flow monetary framework: a Kaldorian view. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 24, n. 2, p. 277- 311, Winter 2001-2002.

LETTAU, M.; LUDVIGSON, S. Understanding trend and cycle in asset values: reevaluating the wealth effect on consumption. Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2003. (Working Paper, n. 9.848).

MAKI, D. The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board, 2000. (Working Paper, n. 2000-12).

________; PALUMBO, M. Disentangling the wealth effect: a cohort analysis of household saving in the 1990s. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board, 2001. (Working Paper, n. 2001-21).

MANN, C. Managing exchange rates: achievement of global re-balancing or evidence of global co-dependency. Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 2004.

MINSKY, H. John Maynard Keynes. New York: Columbia University Press, 1975.

________. Can it happen again? Armonk, NY: ME Sharpe, 1982.

________. Stabilizing an unstable economy. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1986.

MODIGLIANI, F. Consumer spending and monetary policy: the linkages. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference Series, n. 5, 1971.

________; MILLER, M. The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment. American Economic Review, v. 48, n. 3, p. 261-297, Jun. 1958.

OLSON, M. U.S. banking industry performance highlights – 2003. Discurso proferido na ConferÍncia anual do Institute of International Bankers. Washington, D.C., 1 mar. 2004. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/ speeches/2004/>.

PAPADIMITRIOU, D.; SHAIKH, A.; DOS SANTOS, C.; ZEZZA, G. Is personal debt sustainable? Strategic Analysis. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, 2002.

ROUBINI, N.; SETSER, B. The U.S. as a net debtor: the sustainability of the U.S. external imbalances. New York: Stern School of Business, New York University, 2004. (Mimeogr.).

RUDD, J.; WHELAN, K. A note on the cointegration of consumption, income, and wealth. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board, 2002. (Working Paper, n. 2002-53).

SHAIKH, A.; ZEZZA, G.; DOS SANTOS, C. Is international growth the way out of U.S. current account deficits? A note of caution. New York: Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, Sept. 2003. (Policy Note, n. 2003/6) TAYLOR, L. Structuralist macroeconomics. New York: Basic Books, 1983.

________. Reconstructing macroeconomics: structuralist proposals and critiques of the mainstream. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 2004.

TOBIN, J. Asset accumulation and economic activity. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1980.

________. Money and the macroeconomic process. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, v. 14, n. 2, p. 171-204, May 1982.

U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT. Treasury Bulletin, Washington, 2004. DisponÌvel em: <http://www.fms.treas.gov/bulletin/index.html>.

WHELAN, K. A guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data. Finance and Economics Discussion Series. Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board, 2000. (Working Paper, n. 2000-35).

ZEZZA, G.; DOS SANTOS, C. The role of monetary policy in post-Keynesian stock-flow consistent macroeconomic growth models: preliminary results. In: LAVOIE, M.; SECCARECCIA, M. (Ed.). Central banking in the modern world: alternative perspectives. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, Dec. 2004.

A Economia e Sociedade utiliza a licença do Creative Commons (CC), preservando assim, a integridade dos artigos em ambiente de acesso aberto.

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.