A teoria da preferência pela liquidez, das partes mais inovadoras da Teoria geral, é também das mais obscuras, dada a justaposição de pontos de vista aparentemente diferentes e inconsistentes uns com os outros. Este artigo pretende esclarecer as relações lógicas entre algumas das perspectivas consideradas por Keynes, empregando para isso algumas contribuições recentes à teoria da decisão em condições de incerteza e à teoria de option values. O objetivo principal é o de sugerir uma “reconstrução racional” de alguns aspectos da teoria da preferência pela liquidez de Keynes. A preocupação central não é avaliar “o que Keynes realmente quis dizer”, mas sim indicar uma linha de pesquisa que pode ser promissora para a melhor compreensão do comportamento dos mercados financeiros atuais
The theory of liquidity preference is one of the most innovative parts of The general theory. Unfortunately, it is one of its most obscure parts as well, given the juxtaposition of apparently different and mutually inconsistent points of view. This paper aims to clarify the logical relationships between some of those viewpoints, utilizing to this end a few recent contributions to the decision theory under uncertainty and to the theory of option values. The main purpose is to suggest a “rational reconstruction” of some aspects of Keynes’ theory of liquidity preference. This “rational reconstruction” is not mainly concerned with assessing “what really Keynes wanted to say”, but rather with pointing out a line of research which might be promising in order to understand better the behaviour of contemporary financial markets.
Key words: Keynes, John Maynard, 1883-1946.Liquidity preference. Risk and uncertainty. Option value
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