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Resumo
Este artigo argumenta que as bolhas de ativos podem ser entendidas como o resultado de processos transfronteiriços (cross-border) em que a taxa de crescimento dos direitos financeiros sobre ativos de capital excede a taxa de crescimento da produção de ativos reais. Longe de ser um episódio incomum na dinâmica econômica, este tipo de desequilíbrio é uma tendência crônica em economias de boom – ou seja, nações ou regiões dentro de nações que caracteristicamente importam capital e/ou pessoas de outros lugares. Esta interpretação contrasta com outras visões sobre bolhas de ativos, que as consideram anomalias decorrentes de parâmetros de mercado ruins ou de incentivos comportamentais perversos (e evitáveis) nos mercados de crédito. A concepção aqui desenvolvida apóia-se nas idéias de Minsky acerca da fragilidade financeira; estende a concepção de Minsky espacializando-a – ou seja, mostrando que, quando as posições financeiras ultrapassam fronteiras econômicas, emergem tensões que afetam os porta-fólios de forma específica. Curiosamente, esta extensão do conhecido modelo de instabilidade financeira de Minsky utiliza antigos insights do próprio Minsky, por ele negligenciados, sobre a importância de relações transfronteiriças no crescimento econômico. Esta perspectiva é então utilizada para avaliar a experiência recente da Califórnia, do Japão e da Coréia; as três regiões são economias de boom que experimentaram bolhas de ativos na última década. A diversidade destas três experiências demonstra que o comportamento das bolhas de ativos na dinâmica econômica depende de aspectos estruturais contingentes a cada economia e a cada ponto no tempo. Embora explicações plausíveis possam ser sugeridas para muitos dos desdobramentos econômicos e financeiros ocorridos em 1996, eles foram, porém, surpreendentes numa série de aspectos. Os mercados acionários em muitos países subiram de forma acentuada, freqüentemente diante de níveis estagnados de atividade econômica e contínuos patamares de inflação baixa... E os fluxos de capital privado para mercados emergentes ultrapassaram os recordes anteriores por largas margens, com a emissão de títulos internacionais desenvolvendo um papel proeminente. Estes desdobramentos surpreendentes foram o produto de forças econômicas fundamentais ou serão eles revertidos por essas forças no futuro? Parte de uma resposta sincera é que nós simplesmente não sabemos... a capacidade de explicar e predizer deve também ser restringida pelos limites de nosso conhecimento. Há muitos processos econômicos que não conseguimos entender plenamente, em particular na área financeira. Palavras-chave: Bolhas especulativas; Instabilidade financeira; Minsky, Hyman P.; Crise asiática; Economia regional e urbana.
Abstract
This paper argues that asset bubbles can be understood as the result of cross-border processes in which the growth rate of financial claims on capital assets exceeds the growth rate of real asset production. Far from being an unusual episode in economic dynamics, this sort of imbalance is a chronic tendency in boom economies – that is, nations or regions within nations that characteristically import capital and/or people from elsewhere. This interpretation contrasts with other views of asset bubbles, which view them as anomalies due to bad market parameters or perverse (and preventable) behavioral incentives in credit markets. The framework developed here builds on Minsky’s ideas about financial fragility, and extends Minsky’s framework by spatializing it – that is, by showing the special balance-sheet tensions that emerge when financial positions extend across economic borders. Interestingly, this extension of Minsky’s well-known financial-instability model is accomplished by making use of Minsky’s own earlier, neglected insights into the importance of cross-border relations in economic growth. This perspective is then used to evaluate he recent experience of California, Japan, and Korea; all three locales are all boom economies that have experienced asset bubbles within the past decade. The diversity of these three experiences demonstrates that how asset bubbles play out in economic dynamics depends on contingent structural features in each economy at each point in time. While plausible explanations can be suggested for many of the economic and financial developments in 1996, they where nevertheless surprising in a number of respects. Equity markets in many countries rose sharply, often in the face of stagnant levels of economic activity and continuing low levels of inflation... And private capital flows to emerging markets exceeded previous records by wide margins, with international bond issues playing a prominent role. Were these surprising developments the product of fundamental economic forces or, rather, will they be reversed by such forces in the future? One part of an honest answer is that we simply do not know. ... the ability to explain and predict must also be constrained by the limits of our knowledge. There are many economic processes that we do not fully understand, particularly in the financial area. (67th Annual Report, Bank for International Settlements, Basle (9th June 1997: 11).
Key-words: Asset bubbles. Financial instability. Minsky, Hyman P.. Asian crisis. Regional and urban economics
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