A economia de Keynes, a busca de uma nova teoria econômica e a “armadilha do equilíbrio”

Palavras-chave: Teoria macroeconômica. Keynes, J.M., 1883-1946. Economia keynesiana. Equilíbrio

Resumo

Este artigo trata da coexistência de aspectos revolucionários e conciliadores na Teoria geral de Keynes. Propõe-se que a conciliação não era uma necessidade de ordem lógica e que, além disso, dificultou o desenvolvimento de um paradigma não-neoclássico. Argumenta-se que, de um lado, Keynes subestimou o impacto de suas idéias (como sua teoria das decisões sob condições de incerteza) sobre questões microeconômicas; dessa forma, o escopo de sua teoria “geral” foi desnecessariamente limitado ao âmbito de uma disciplina particular, a “teoria da produção e do emprego como um todo”, vale dizer, a macroeconomia. De outro lado, a adoção do método do equilíbrio teria sido, em última instância, prejudicial. A estática comparativa foi entronizada como método legítimo para a teoria macroeconômica; em conseqüência, a demonstração, pela síntese neoclássica, da existência de condições sob as quais a economia se encontra em equilíbrio de pleno emprego pôde facilmente ser interpretada como representando a derrota da revolução keynesiana, liberada das limitações impostas pelo próprio Keynes, oferece o arcabouço teórico necessário a um paradigma alternativo, baseado no método da dinâmica e no conceito de tempo histórico.

Abstract

This article is concerned with the coexistence of revolutionary and conciliatory elements in Keynes’ General theory. The contention is that conciliation was not a logical necessity and, besides, that it has imposed some obstacles to the development of a non-neoclassical paradigm. It is argued that, on the one hand, Keynes played down the impact of his ideas – as, for instance, his theory of decisions under conditions of uncertainty – upon microeconomic issues; by that means, the scope of his “general” theory was unnecessarily restricted to the “theory of output and employment as a whole”, i.e., macroeconomics. On the other hand, it is argued that the adoption of the equilibrium method proved ultimately misleading, because it enthroned comparative statics as a legitimate method in macroeconomic theory. As a consequence, neoclassical synthesis’ banal theorems on the existence of a full employment equilibrium were easily interpreted as the indisputed defeat of Keynes’ theory. In contrast, this article suggests that, once freed from the limitation imposed by Keynes himself, Keynesian theory provides the theoretical framework for an alternative paradigm, based on dynamics and on a historical concept of time.

Key-words: Macroeconomic theory. Keynes, J.M., 1883-1946. Keynesian economics; Equilibrium

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Biografia do Autor

Antonio Carlos Macedo Silva, Universidade Estadual de Campinas
Possui graduação em Economia pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (1980), mestrado em Ciência Econômica pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (1985) e doutorado em Ciência Econômica pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (1994). Realizou estágio de pós-doutorado na Université de Paris em 1997-1998. Atualmente é professor assistente - ms3 da Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Foi durante 10 anos editor-chefe da revista Economia e Sociedade. Foi pesquisador principal de projeto temático financiado pela Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo. Tem experiência na área de Economia, com ênfase em Macroeconomia e Economia Internacional.

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Publicado
2016-02-02
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Silva, A. C. M. (2016). A economia de Keynes, a busca de uma nova teoria econômica e a “armadilha do equilíbrio”. Economia E Sociedade, 4(2), 111-158. Recuperado de https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8643199
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