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Crescimento, ciclo econômico, mudança tecnológica e financiamento
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Palavras-chave

Crescimento econômico. Ciclo. Tecnologia. Finanças. Complexidade.

Como Citar

HIGACHI, Hermes Yukio; LIMA, Gilberto Tadeu; PEREIMA, João Basilio. Crescimento, ciclo econômico, mudança tecnológica e financiamento. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 25, n. 3, p. 533–568, 2017. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8648331. Acesso em: 24 maio. 2024.

Resumo

Este artigo analisa as relações entre o crescimento, o ciclo econômico, e o financiamento da firma em um ambiente inovativo. Este processo é analisado com a utilização de um modelo baseado em agentes, com 100 firmas interagindo entre si e com um sistema bancário, onde os regimes de financiamento do tipo hedge, especulativo e Ponzi são propriedades macroeconômicas emergentes da economia. Dois regimes tecnológicos são comparados: baixo e alto desenvolvimento tecnológico. A emergência de ciclos ou crises não está predeterminada, mas decorre da natureza complexa das interações no nível agente-agente e no nível agente-ambiente macro. A construção de uma teoria integrada do ciclo e do crescimento, da inovação e do financiamento, é possível desde que se recorra a uma abordagem baseada em agentes heterogêneos, uma vez que o ciclo ou crescimento não é um atributo exclusivo do agente (firma) ou do ambiente macro, mas sim da interação constante entre todas as partes do sistema. Ao final o artigo realiza uma análise econométrica sobre dados gerados artificialmente, como forma de mostrar que, mesmo com o uso de equações em diferenças finitas, com causalidades temporais pré-definidas, os resultados emergentes produzem relações de causalidade bidirecionais no sentido de Granger entre a inovação, o grau de fragilidade financeira, o crescimento e o ciclo econômico, tal como tem sido reconhecido na literatura empírica.

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