Banner Portal
Dinâmica e determinantes da diversificação das exportações brasileiras no período de 2003 a 2013
PDF (English)

Palavras-chave

Crescimento econômico
Diversificação
Dados em painel dinâmico
Brasil

Como Citar

OLIVEIRA, H. C. de .; JEGU, E.; SANTOS, V. E. . Dinâmica e determinantes da diversificação das exportações brasileiras no período de 2003 a 2013. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 29, n. 1, p. 29–51, 2018. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8662052. Acesso em: 21 fev. 2024.

Resumo

Durante o período de 1960 até o início do século XXI, o Brasil apresentou um processo de diversificação das exportações do país de forma satisfatória. No entanto, essa performance tem sido bastante ambígua no decorrer das últimas décadas. Esse artigo, além de explorar a literatura que trata da relação entre diversificação das exportações e crescimento econômico, analisa os determinantes da diversificação das exportações brasileiras no período de 2003 a 2013. Para atingir os objetivos do artigo, foi utilizada a metodologia de Painel Dinâmico para os estados brasileiros. Os resultados indicam que, em geral, as exportações brasileiras concentraram-se momentaneamente nos anos de 2004, 2008 e 2012, mas tiveram um ligeiro processo de diversificação no ano 2005. Os estados do Sul e Sudeste são aqueles que apresentam maior diversificação dos produtos exportados, mas os estados do Centro-Oeste e Nordeste experimentam, desde o ano de 2006, altas taxas de diversificação das suas pautas de exportação. Além disso, os resultados econométricos indicam que as variáveis de educação, patentes per capitas, acesso ao crédito e investimentos públicos, demonstraram relação positiva e significativa com o processo de diversificação da economia brasileira no período estudado.

PDF (English)

Referências

AGOSIN, M. Export diversification and growth in emerging economies. Cepal Review, p. 115-131, 2000.

AHN, S.; SCHMIDT, P. Efficient estimation of dynamic panel data models: alternative assumptions and simplified estimation. Journal of Econometrics, v. 76, n. 1-2, p. 309-332, 1993.

ALINK, M.; KOMMER, V. Chapter 1: Taxation. In: HANDBOOK on tax administration. 8th ed. Amsterdam: IBFD, 2011. p. 1-58.

AL-MARHUBI, F. Export diversification and growth: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, v. 7, p. 559-562, 2000.

ADITYA, A.; ACHARYYA, R. Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, v. 22, n. 7, p. 959-992, 2013.

ARELLANO, M.; BOVER, O. Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of errorcomponents models. Journal of Econometrics, v. 68, n. 1, p. 29-51, 1995.

ARNOLD, J.; MURAKAMI, Y.; BUENO, M.; ARAÚJO, S.; BEYNET, P. OECD Economic Surveys: Brazil. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2015. p. 6-42.

BAFFLES, J.; LEWIN, B.; VARANGIS, P. Chapter 16 – Coffee: market setting and policies. In: ATAMAN, M.; BEGHIN, J.C. Global agricultural trade and developing countries. Washington D.C.: World Bank, 2005. p. 297-309.

BLUNDELL, R.; BOND, S. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, v. 87, n. 1, p. 115-143, 1998.

BON, S.; HOEFFLER, A.; TEMPLE, J. GMM estimation of empirical growth models. London: Center for Economic Policy Research, 2011. p. 1-25. (Discussion Paper, n. 3048).

CHANDRA, V.; BOCCARDO J.; OSORIO, I. Export diversification and competitiveness in developing countries. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2007.

CIRERA, X.; MARIN, A.; MARKWALD, R. Firm behaviour and the introduction of new exports: evidence from Brazil. IDS, 2012. p. 1-105. (Working Papers, n. 390).

COLLIER, P.; DOLLAR, D. Chapter1: The new wave of globalization and its economic effects. In COLLIER, P.; DOLLAR, D. Globalization, growth, and poverty: building an inclusive world economy. Washington DC: World Bank, 2002. p. 23-51.

DA SILVA, N.; DA SILVA, G. Contribuição do setor madeireiro à balança comercial do estado de Roraima: contexto econômico e ambiental. Revista Acta Geográfica, n. 3, p. 85-91, 2008.

DAWE, D. A new look at the effects of exports instability on investment and growth. World Development, v. 24, p. 1905-1914, 1996.

DEBCZUKY, R.; BERRETTONI, D. Explaining export diversification: an empirical analysis. CAF Research Program on Development Issues, p. 1-35, 2006.

ELHIRAIKA, A. B.; MBATE, M. M. Assessing the determinants of export diversification in Africa. Applied Econometrics and International Development, v. 14, n. 1, p. 147-160, 2014.

FAPEMIG. Plataforma de Dados Econômicos e Sociais do Brasil. 2016.

FELIPE, J. Modern industrial policy. In: JESUS, F. (Ed.). Development and modern industrial policy in practice. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, 2015. p. 1-23.

GELB, A. Economic diversification in resource rich countries. Drawn from: Lecture At A High-Level Seminar On Natural Resources, Finance And Development: Confronting Old And New Challenges. Organized by the Central Bank of Algeria and IMF Institute in Algiers. 2010.

GNANGNON, K.; MOSER, C. Intellectual property rights protection and export diversification: the application of utility model laws. Geneva: World Trade Organization, 2014. p. 1-36. (Working Paper ERSD).

GROSSMAN, G.; HELPMAN, E. Innovation and growth in the global economy. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1992. p. 359.

GYLFASON, T.; HERBERTSSON, T. T.; ZOEGA, G. A mixed blessing: natural resources and economic growth. Macroeconomic Dynamics, v. 3, p. 204-225, 1999.

HAUSMANN, R.; RODRIK, D. Economic development as self-discovery. Journal of Development Economics, v. 72, n. 2, p. 603-633, 2003.

HECKSCHER, E. F. The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income. (English translation of the original 1919 article in 1919, Ekonomisk Tidskrift). 1919.

HERZER, D.; FELICITAS NOWAK-LEHMANN, D. What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis. Applied Economics, v. 38, n. 15, p. 1825-1838, 2006.

HUSTED, S.; MELVIN, M. Chapter 3: the classical model of international trade. In: INTERNATIONAL Economics. 8 th ed. Boston: Addison-Wesley, 2010. p. 54-67.

INMAN, P. Brazil’s economy overtakes UK to become world’s sixth largest. The Guardian. 2012. Retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/mar/06/brazil-economyworlds-sixth-largest.

KAULICH, F. Diversification vs. specialization as alternative strategies for economic development: can we settle a debate by looking at the empirical evidence? Vienna: United Nations Industrial Development Organization, 2012. (Working Paper, n. 3).

KRUGMAN, P. R. Is free trade passé? The Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 1, n. 2, p. 131-144, 1987.

KUME, L. Uma estimativa dos determinantes da taxa de criminalidade brasileira: uma aplicação em painel dinâmico. Presented at a meeting from the ANPEC. 2004.

KUZNETS, S. Economic growth of nations: total output and production structure. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1971.

KUZNETS, S. Modern economic growth: findings and reflections. Prize Lecture, Nobelprize.org., 2014.

LALL, S. Skills, competitiveness and policy in developing countries. University of Oxford, Queen Elizabeth House, 2000. (Working Paper, QEHWPS46).

LEDERMAN, D.; MALONEY, W.F. Does what you export matter? In search of empirical guidance for industrial policies. Washington: The World Bank, 2012. p. 57-89.

LOAYZA, N.; RANCIÈRE, R.; SERVÉN, L.; VENTURA, J. Macroeconomic volatility and welfare in developing countries: an introduction. The World Bank Economic Review, v. 21, n. 3, p. 343-357, 2007.

LOBO, J.; BETTENCOURT, L.; STRUMSKY, D.; WEST, G. B. The economic productivity of urban areas: disentangling general scale effects from local exceptionality. Santa Fe: Santa Fe Institute, 2011. p. 1-20. (Working Paper SFA-2011-09-046).

LUCAS, R. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 22, n. 1, p. 3-42, 1988.

MARISCAL, R.; POWELL, A. Commodity price booms and breaks: detection, magnitude and implications for developing countries. Inter-American Development Bank, 2014. p. 1-42. (Working Paper, n. 444).

MATTOO, A. Exporting services. In: NEWFARMER, R.; SHAW, W.; WALKENHORST, P. Breaking into new markets: emerging lessons for export diversification. Washington D.C.: World Bank Publications, 2009. p. 161-181.

MEJÍA, J. F. Export diversification and economic growth: an analysis of Colombia’s export competitiveness in the European Union’s market. Berlin: Physica-Verlag, 2011. p. 9-11, p. 80- 83.

MOBARAK, A. M. Democracy, volatility, and economic development. The Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 87, n. 2, p. 348-361, 2005.

NEWFARMER, R.; WALKENHORST, P.; SHAW, W. Breaking into new markets: emerging lessons for export diversification. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2009. p. xi-xiv.

OHLIN, B. Interregional and international trade. 1933.

PERMAN, R.; MA, Y.; COMMON, M., MADDISON, D.; McGILVRAY, J. Chapter 10: Trade and the environment. In: NATURAL resource and environmental economics. 4 th ed. Harlow, Essex: Pearson Education, 2011. p. 342-347.

RAMEY, G.; RAMEY, V. A. Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth. The American Economic Review, v. 85, n. 5, p. 1138-1151, 1995.

ROMER, P. Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, v. 98, n. 5, p. 71-102, 1990.

SACHS, J. D.; WARNER, A. M. Natural resources and economic development: the curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, v. 45, n. 4-6, p. 827-838, 2001.

TOYE, J. F. J.; TOYE, R. The origins and interpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis. History of Political Economy, v. 35, n. 3, p. 437-467, 2003.

VETTAS, N. Investment dynamics in markets with endogenous demand. The Journal of Industrial Economics, v. 48, n. 2, p. 189-203, 2000.

VERHEIJ. T.; OLIVEIRA, H. C. Is economic complexity spatially dependent? A spatial analysis of interactions of economic complexity between municipalities in Brazil. International Conference on Economic Modeling (EcoMod2017). Ljubljana, Slovenia, 2017.

WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION. International Trade Statistics. Geneva, WTO, 2016. p. 1-46. Retrieved from: https://www.wto.org/statisticshttps://www.wto.org/english/res_e/ statis_e/its2015_e/its2015_e.pdf.

Creative Commons License
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Copyright (c) 2020 Economia e Sociedade

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.