O grau de exchange rate pass-through na economia brasileira no período pós Real

Autores

Palavras-chave:

Repasse cambial, Comércio internacional, Importações, Exportações

Resumo

O problema de pesquisa desse artigo encontra-se associado à identificação do grau de repasse cambial para os preços das exportações e importações referente à economia brasileira. Estima-se o grau de repasse cambial, entre janeiro de 2000 e junho de 2016, por meio dos modelos ARDL e DOLS para dados em painel. Adicionalmente, utiliza-se o filtro de Kalman na estimação dos repasses cambiais variáveis no tempo. Os resultados empíricos evidenciam a existência de um grau de repasse cambial para os preços das exportações incompleto e inferior ao obtido para as importações (valor médio de 36% e 100%, respectivamente). Nesse contexto, as políticas econômicas que visam elevar as exportações brasileiras, via depreciação cambial, podem não ser o instrumento mais adequado de fomento do crescimento econômico, considerando o baixo grau de competitividade das exportações e o potencial impacto do alto grau de repasse cambial para os preços das
importações sobre o nível geral de preços.

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Biografia do Autor

Giuliano de Queiroz Ferreira, Universidade de São Paulo

Professor do Departamento de Economia da Faculdade de Economia e Administração e Contabilidade de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo (FEA-RP/USP), Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil. 

Leonardo Bornacki de Mattos, Universidade Federal de Viçosa

Professor associado do Departamento de Economia Rural da Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), Viçosa, MG, Brasil.

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2021-07-22

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FERREIRA, G. de Q. .; MATTOS, L. B. de . O grau de exchange rate pass-through na economia brasileira no período pós Real. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 31, n. 2, p. 311–350, 2021. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8666453. Acesso em: 27 set. 2021.

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