Banner Portal
Impactos potenciais do acordo Mercosul-União Europeia
PDF (English)

Palavras-chave

Cadeia de valor automotiva
Acordo de livre comércio
União Europeia
Mercosul

Como Citar

DULCICH, Federico. Impactos potenciais do acordo Mercosul-União Europeia. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 32, n. 1, p. 135–162, 2023. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8673229. Acesso em: 19 abr. 2024.

Resumo

Este trabalho estuda os potenciais efeitos do acordo Mercosul-UE para a cadeia de valor automotiva na Argentina e no Brasil, identificando para onde se moverão as balanças comerciais de cada um dos produtos de cada um dos sócios. Os principais resultados indicam que a UE melhorará sua balança comercial na grande maioria dos produtos automotivos e de autopeças. Além das diferenças de competitividade internacional, outros fatores impulsionam esses resultados, como as diferenças de escala de produção entre os sócios, as maiores preferências tarifárias concedidas pelo Mercosul, o maior potencial de demanda por veículos na Argentina e no Brasil do que na UE, os mais altos requisitos do mercado da UE em termos de regulamentações sobre a qualidade de produtos e processos, entre outros.

PDF (English)

Referências

ACEA. Making the transition to zero-emission mobility. 2020 progress report. European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), 2020. Available at: https://www.acea.be/uploads/publications/ACEA_progress_report_2020.pdf Last accessed: Dec. 21, 2020.

ALTENBURG, T. From combustion engines to electric vehicles: a study of technological path creation and disruption in Germany. Bonn: Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), 2014. (Discussion Paper, n. 29).

ANFAVEA. Anuário da Indústria Automobilística Brasileira 2019 São Paulo: Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores (Anfavea), 2019.

ANFAVEA. Mobilidade através das gerações Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores (Anfavea) y SPRY, 2018. Available at: https://anfavea.com.br/docs/apresentacao_final_07_11_18.pdf Last accessed: Feb. 24, 2021.

BALASSA, B. The theory of economic integration R.D. Irwin, 1961.

BALCET, G.; IETTO-GILLIES, G. Internationalisation, outsourcing and labour fragmentation: the case of FIAT. Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 44, n. 1, p. 105-128, 2020.

BALDWIN, R. 21st Century regionalism: filling the gap between 21st Century Trade and 20th Century Trade Rules. Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2011. (CEPR Policy Insight, n. 56).

BALDWIN, R.; VENABLES, A. Regional economic integration. Handbook of International Economics, v. 3, p. 1597-1644, 1995.

BECKER, H.; BALAC, M.; CIARI, F.; AXHAUSEN, K. Assessing the welfare impacts of Shared Mobility and Mobility as a Service (MaaS). Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, n. 131, p. 228-243, 2020.

BEKERMAN, M.; DULCICH, F.; GAITE, P. La caída de las exportaciones industriales a Brasil, ¿cuánto afectó a la producción argentina? Economia e Sociedade, v. 29, n. 2, p. 609-638, 2020.

BRITO, T.; ISLAM, T.; STETTLER, M.; MOUETTE, D.; MEADE, N.; DOS SANTOS, E. Transitions between technological generations of alternative fuel vehicles in Brazil. Energy Policy, v. 134, 2019.

BURRELL, A.; FERRARI, E.; MELLADO, A. G.; HIMICS, M.; MICHALEK, J.; SHRESTHA, S.; VAN DOORSLAER, B. Potential EU-Mercosur free trade agreement: impact assessment. V. 1: Main results (n. JRC67394). Joint Research Centre (Seville site), 2011.

CABIGIOSU, A.; ZIRPOLI, F.; CAMUFFO, A. Modularity, interfaces definition and the integration of external sources of innovation in the automotive industry. Research Policy, v. 42, n. 3, p. 662-675, 2013.

CAETANO, G.; POSEE, N. Sus impactos en el Uruguay desde una perspectiva de historia política. In: ACUERDO de Asociación UE–Mercosur, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Bruselas, 2020.

CANTARELLA, J.; KATZ, L.; MONZÓN, N. Argentina: factores que debilitan la integración de autopartes locales. In: PANIGO et al. (Coord.). La encrucijada del autopartismo en América Latina UNDAV, Avellaneda, 2017.

CEPE. Foro Mundial para la Armonización de la Reglamentación sobre Vehículos (WP.29). Funcionamiento. Participación. Comisión Económica para Europa (CEPE), Naciones Unidas, Ginebra, 2012.

CEPEDA, H.; ROZEMBERG, R.; HURTADO, E. Convergencia regulatoria del complejo automotor del MERCOSUR para impulsar la integración Inter-American Development Bank, 2017. Available at: http://www.unsam.edu.ar/escuelas/politica/ideas/documentos/Sectores%20Productivos/Complejo%20automotor.pdf Last accessed: Mar. 26, 2021.

CORIAT, B. El taller y el robot: ensayos sobre el fordismo y la producción en masa en la era de la electrónica. 5. ed. en español. Siglo XXI editores, 2004.

DE MELLO, A. M.; MARX, R.; SOUZA, A. Exploring scenarios for the possibility of developing design and production competencies of electrical vehicles in Brazil. International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, v. 13, n. 3, p. 289-314, 2013.

DIAO, X.; DÍAZ-BONILLA, E.; ROBINSON, S. Scenarios for trade integration in the Americas. Économie internationale, n. 2, p. 33-52, 2003.

DOMAŃSKI, B; LUNG, Y. The changing face of the European periphery in the automotive industry. European Urban and Regional Studies v. 16, n. 1, p. 5-10, 2009.

DULCICH, F.; OTERO, D.; CANZIAN, A. Evolución reciente y situación actual de la producción y difusión de vehículos eléctricos a nivel global y en Latinoamérica. Asian Journal of Latin American Studies, v. 32, n. 4, p. 21-51, 2019.

EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Action Plan on Critical Raw Materials – Factsheet European Commission, 2020. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/docsroom/documents/42852 Last accessed: Feb. 10, 2021.

FLÔRES, R.; WATANUKI, M. Integration options for Mercosur: a quantitative analysis by the AMIDA model. Institute for the Integration of Latin America and the Caribbean (INTAL), Inter-American Development Bank, 2008. (Working Paper, n. 36).

FUJIMOTO, T. An architectural analysis of green vehicles-possibilities of technological, architectural and firm diversity. International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, v. 17, n. 2, p. 123-150, 2017.

GEREFFI, G.; HUMPHREY, J.; STURGEON, T. The governance of global value chains. Review of International Political Economy, v. 12, n. 1, p. 78-104, 2005.

GHIOTTO, L.; ECHAIDE, J. El acuerdo entre el Mercosur y la Unión Europea: estudio integral de sus cláusulas y efectos. Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales, 2020.

GOLDBERG, P. K.; VERBOVEN, F. The evolution of price dispersion in the European car market National Bureau of Economic Research, 1998. (Working Paper, n. 6818).

GROSSMAN, G.; Y HELPMAN, E. Technology and trade National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994. (Working Paper, n. 4926).

HABERLER, G. Some problems in the pure theory of international trade. The Economic Journal, v. 60, n. 238, p. 223-240, 1950.

HORJ, A.; PEKARSKAYA, M.; HEAL, A. Technical barriers to trade: evidence from the Republic of Korea’s automotive sector. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), 2014. (Trade Insights, n. 1).

HUMPHREY, J.; SCHMITZ, H. How does insertion in global value chains affect upgrading in industrial clusters? Regional Studies, v. 36, n. 9, p. 1017-1027, 2002.

HUSAN, R. The continuing importance of economies of scale in the automotive industry. European Business Review, v. 97, n. 1, p. 38-42, 1997.

IEA. Global EV Outlook 2018: towards cross-modal electrification. International Energy Agency, 2018.

IEA. Global EV Outlook 2020: entering the decade of electric drive? International Energy Agency, 2020.

KRISHNA, K. Understanding rules of origin National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005. (Working Paper, n. 11150).

KRUGMAN, P. A model of innovation, technology transfer, and the world distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy, v. 87, n. 2, p. 253-266, 1979.

LABORDE, D.; RAMOS, M. Will regionalism survive multilateralism? The EU-Mercosur example. In: ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON GLOBAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS. Assessing the Foundations of Global Economic Analysis, 10. West Lafayette, USA: GTAP, Purdue University, 2007.

LAENS, S.; TERRA, M. La agenda externa del MERCOSUR: el impacto de negociaciones con el ALCA, la UE y la OMC. Documento de Trabajo/FCS-DE; n. 3/06, 2006.

LAFAY, G. The measurement of revealed comparative advantages. In: DAGENAIS, M. G.; MUET, P. A. (Ed.). International trade modelling. London: Chapman & Hill, 1992.

LÓPEZ, A.; OBAYA, M.; PASCUINI, P.; RAMOS, A. Litio en la Argentina: oportunidades y desafíos para el desarrollo de la cadena de valor. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, 2019. (Monografía del BID, n. 698).

LSE. Sustainability impact assessment in support of the association agreement negotiations between the European Union and Mercosur London School of Economics and Political Science, 2020.

LUTZ, M. Pricing in segmented markets, arbitrage barriers, and the law of one price: evidence from the European car market. Review of International Economics, v. 12, n. 3, p. 456-475, 2004.

MARTIN, S.; SCOTT, J. The nature of innovation market failure and the design of public support for private innovation. Research Policy, v. 29, n. 4-5, p. 437-447, 2000.

MILLER, J.; BRAUN, C. Cost-benefit analysis of Euro VI heavy-duty emission standards in Argentina ICCT White Paper, International Council on Clean Transportation, 2020.

MONTEAGUDO, J.; WATANUKI, M. Regional trade agreements for Mercosur: a comparison between the FTAA and the FTA with the European Union. Économie Internationale, n. 2, p. 53-76, 2003.

MOTOHASHI, K.; YUAN, Y. Productivity impact of technology spillover from multinationals to local firms: Comparing China’s automobile and electronics industries. Research Policy, v. 39, n. 6, p. 790-798, 2010.

MUNIZ, S.; BELZOWSKI, B. Platforms to enhance electric vehicles’ competitiveness. International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, v. 17, n. 2, p. 151-168, 2017.

ORGANISATION INTERNATIONALE DES CONSTRUCTEURS D’AUTOMOBILES – OICA. World Motor Vehicle Production: 2017 Statistics, Groups PSA, Renault and Hyundai. 2020. Available at: https://www.oica.net/category/production-statistics/2017-statistics/ Last accessed: Dec. 22, 2020.

ORNELAS, E.; PUCCIO, L. Reopening Pandora’s box in search of a WTO-compatible industrial policy? The Brazil –Taxation Dispute. World Trade Review, v. 19, n. 2, p. 249-266, 2020.

PANIGO, D. T.; GÁRRIZ, A.; SCHORR, M.; LAVARELLO, P. La encrucijada del autopartismo en América Latina Buenos Aires: UNDAV Ediciones, 2017.

PAVLÍNEK, P.; ALÁEZ-ALLER, R.; GIL-CANALETA, C.; ULLIBARRI-ARCE, M. Foreign direct investment and the development of the automotive industry in Eastern and Southern Europe European Trade Union Institute, 2017. (Working Paper, n. 03).

PETERS, J.; BECKER, W. Vertical corporate networks in the German automotive industry: structure, efficiency, and R&D spillovers. International Studies of Management & Organization, v. 27, n. 4, p. 158-185, 1997.

SARAVANAN, A. P.; PUGAZHENDHI, A.; MATHIMANI, T. A comprehensive assessment of biofuel policies in the BRICS nations: implementation, blending target and gaps. Fuel, v. 272, 2020.

SECRETARÍA DE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA – SPE. Informes de cadenas de valor: automotriz y autopartista. 2018. Available at: https://www.economia.gob.ar/peconomica/docs/2018/SSPMicro_Cadenas_de_valor_Automotriz.pdfLast accessed: Aug. 26, 2019.

STURGEON, T. How do we define value chains and production networks? IDS bulletin, v. 32, n. 3, p. 9-18, 2001.

STURGEON, T.; MEMEDOVIC, O.; VAN BIESEBROECK, J.; GEREFFI, G. Globalisation of the automotive industry: main features and trends. International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development, v. 1, n. 1, p. 7-23, 2009.

SUÁREZ-CUESTA, D.; LATORRE, M. A general equilibrium assessment of the EU-Mercosur Association Agreement. 2021. Available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3973010 Last accessed: Jun. 9, 2022.

TRUETT, L.; TRUETT, D. A requiem for the Australian motor vehicle industry. Applied Economics, v. 50, n. 40, p. 4343-4359, 2018.

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION – WHO. Global status report on road safety 2018 2018.

WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION – WHO. The WTO Agreements Series: technical barriers to trade. Switzerland: World Trade Organization, Geneva, 2014.

YU, A.; DE SOUZA NASCIMENTO, P.; NIGRO, F.; FREDERICK, B.; VARANDAS, A.; VIEIRA, S.; ROCHA, R. The evolution of flex-fuel technology in Brazil: the Bosch case. In: IEEE. PICMET 2010 Technology Management for Global Economic Growth 2010. p. 1-11.

Creative Commons License

Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Copyright (c) 2023 Economia e Sociedade

Downloads

Não há dados estatísticos.