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Este trabalho desenvolve uma análise teórica e empírica sobre o padrão de longo prazo dos fluxos de capitais. Com uma amostra de 105 países e dados para o período 1980-2004, a metodologia econométrica abrange modelos para cross-section e para dados em painel. Os resultados apresentados sugerem: i) incoerência entre as previsões do modelo neoclássico e o padrão observado dos fluxos de capitais, o que caracteriza o puzzle; ii) no âmbito da abordagem convencional, as explicações para o puzzle são diferenças de fundamentos entre países e imperfeições no mercado financeiro; iii) não há evidências de que diferenças entre os países relativas ao ambiente institucional, estoque de capital humano, integração financeira, política macroeconômica e desenvolvimento financeiro expliquem o puzzle. Considerando os resultados apresentados, esboça-se uma explicação alternativa de inspiração heterodoxa para o padrão dos fluxos de capitais.
Abstract
This paper develops a theoretical and empirical analysis on the pattern of long-term capital flows. With a sample of 105 countries and data for the period 1980-2004, the econometric methodology includes models for cross-sectional and panel data. The results presented suggest: i) inconsistency between the predictions of the neoclassical model and the observed pattern of capital flows, which characterizes the puzzle; ii) under the conventional approach, the explanations for the puzzle are differences in fundamentals between countries and imperfections in financial markets; iii) there is no evidence that differences between countries regarding the institutional environment, human capital stock, financial integration, macroeconomic policy and financial development explain the puzzle. Considering the results presented, it outlines an alternative explanation of heterodox inspiration for the pattern of capital flows.
Keywords: Financial integration; Capital flows; Lucas Puzzle.
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