Keywords
State-owned banks
Credit
Counter-cyclical policies
Brazil.
Credit
Counter-cyclical policies
Brazil.
How to Cite
CUNHA, André Moreira; LÉLIS, Marcos Tadeu Caputi; SILVA, Pedro Perfeito da; LOPES, Lucas Ulguim. Ciclos financeiros e o comportamento do crédito no Brasil nos anos 2000: Financial cycles and the credit market in Brazil during the 2000s. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 28, n. 1, p. 201–226, 2019. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8656956. Acesso em: 17 jul. 2024.
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the behavior of Brazilian state-owned banks during the global financial crisis and its aftermath. In this regard, it employs time-series econometrics, based on the MS-DR and VEC models. Evidence was found suggesting that the credit originated in state-owned banks showed counter-cyclical characteristics; while private banks behaved in a typically procyclical manner.
References
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ARAÚJO, V. L. Preferência pela liquidez dos bancos públicos no ciclo de expansão do crédito no Brasil: 2003-2010. Brasília: Ipea, jan. 2012. (Texto para Discussão, n. 1717).
ARAÚJO, V. L.; PIRES, M. J. S.; SILVA, M. F.; CASTRO, D. A. O estado atual das instituições financeiras públicas para o desenvolvimento na América Latina: uma análise exploratória. Brasília: Ipea, maio. 2011a. (Texto para Discussão, n. 1616).
ARAÚJO, V. L.; PIRES, M. J. S.; SILVA, M. F.; CASTRO, D. A. O sistema brasileiro de instituições financeiras subnacionais para o desenvolvimento: um panorama. Brasília: Ipea, jun. 2011b. (Texto Para Discussão, n. 1626).
ARAÚJO, V. L.; CINTRA, M. A. M. O papel dos bancos públicos federais na economia brasileira. Brasília: Ipea, abr. 2011. (Texto para Discussão, n. 1604).
ARESTIS, P.; SOBREIRA, R.; OREIRO, J. L. (Ed.). An assessment of the global impact of the financial crisis. Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.
BANCO CENTRAL DO BRASIL. Bulletin – Annual report (several years). Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, 2014.
BECK, T.; DEMIRGUC-KUNT, A.; LEVINE, R. Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time – data and analysis. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009. (Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 4943).
BERTAY, Ata Can; DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, Asli; HUIZINGA, Harry. Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: is lending by State Banks less procyclical? Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6110).
BIS. 84th Annual Report. Basle: Bank for International Settlements, 2014.
BIS. 85th Annual Report. Basle: Bank for International Settlements, 2015.
BIS. 86th Annual Report. Basle: Bank for International Settlements. 2016.
BLANCHARD, O. et al. (Ed.). Progress and confusion: the state of macroeconomic policy. MIT Press, 2016.
BONOMO, M.; BRITO, R.; MARTINS, B. Macroeconomic and financial consequences of the after crisis government-driven credit expansion in Brazil. Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil, Dec. 2014. (Working Paper Series, n. 378).
BORIO, C. The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learnt? Basle: Bank for International Settlements, 2012. (BIS Working Papers, n. 395).
BORIO, C.; FURFINE, C.; LOWE. P. Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options. Basle: Bank for International Settlements, Mar. 2001. (BIS Papers, n. 1).
BRUNO, V.; SHIN, H. S. Capital flows, cross-border banking and global liquidity. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 71, p. 119-132, Apr. 2015.
CAMPBELL, J. Y.; PERRON, P. Pitfalls and opportunities: what macroeconomists should know about unit roots and cointegration. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991.
CARVALHO, C. E.; TEPASSÊ, A. C. Banco público como banco comercial e múltiplo: elementos para a análise do caso brasileiro. In: JAYME JR., F.; CROCCO, M. Bancos públicos e desenvolvimento. Rio de Janeiro: Ipea, 2010.
CAVALCANTE, A.; CROCCO, M.; JAYME JÚNIOR, F. J. Preferência pela liquidez, sistema bancário e disponibilidade de crédito regional. Belo Horizonte: Cedeplar/UFMG, 2004. (Texto para Discussão, n. 237).
ČIHÁK, M.; DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. Rethinking the state’s role in finance. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6400).
ČIHÁK, M.; DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, A.; FEYEN, E; LEVINE, R. Benchmarking financial development around the world. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6175).
CORREA, P. R. R. et al. A estrutura do setor bancário brasileiro e o ciclo recente de expansão do crédito: o papel dos bancos públicos. In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ECONOMIA, 38, Anpec, 2010, Salvador. Anais...
COSTA, F. N. Atuação anticíclica dos bancos públicos brasileiros. Campinas, SP: Instituto de Economia/Unicamp, set. 2015. (Texto para a Discussão, n. 258).
CULL, R.; MARTÍNEZ PERÍA, M. S. Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008- 2009 financial crisis: evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6195).
CYNAMON B. Z.; FAZZARI, S.; SETTERFIELD, M. (Ed.). After the great recession: the struggle for economic recovery and growth. Cambridge University Press, 2013.
DE LA TORRE, A.; IZE, A.; SCHMUKLER, S. L. (Ed.). Financial development in Latin America and the Caribbean: the road ahead. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011.
DE LUNA-MARTÍNEZ, J.; VICENTE, C. L. Global survey of development banks. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 5969).
DE PAULA, L. F. R. Financial liberalization and economic performance: Brazil at the crossroads. London: Routledge, 2011.
DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, A.; FEYEN, E.; LEVINE, R. The evolving importance of banks and securities markets. World Bank Economic Review, p 1-15, Aug. 2012.
DICKEY, D.; JANSEN, D.; THORNTON, D. A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income. In: RAO, B. Cointegration for the applied economist. 2. ed. New York City: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007.
DOLADO J. J.; GONZALO, J.; MARMOL, F. Contegration. In: BALTAGI, B. H. (Ed.). A companion to theoretical econometrics. Wiley-Blackwell, 2003.
DOORNIK, Jurgen A. Econometric analysis with Markov-Switching Models – PcGive 14. 1 st ed. London: Timberlake Consultants Ltd, 2013. v. 1.
FERRARI FILHO, F. et al. Brazilian countercyclical economic policies as a response to the great recession: a critical analysis and an alternative proposal to ensure macroeconomic stability. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 36, p. 513-539, 2014.
FREITAS, M. C. P. A natureza particular da concorrência bancária e seus efeitos sobre a estabilidade financeira. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, n. 9, p. 51-84, jun. 1997.
GERSCHENKRON, A. Economic backwardness in historical perspective. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1962.
GOLDFELD, S. M.; QUANDT, R. E. A Markov Model for switching regressions. Journal of Econometrics, v. 1, p. 3-16, 1973.
GOODHART, C. A. E. Powers and scope of the macro-prudential authority In: LA BROSSE, J. R., OLIVARES-CAMINAL, R., SINGH, D. (Ed.). Financial crisis containment and government guarantees. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013. p. 29-42.
GRANGER, C. W. J.; LEE, T. H. Multicointegration. In: ENGLE, R. F., GRANGER, W. J., Long-run economic relationships: reading in cointegration. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.
GRUSS, B. After the boom-commodity prices and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. IMF Working Paper, v. 14, n. 154, 2014.
GUTIÉRREZ, E.; RUDOLPH, H. P.; HOMA, T; BENEIT, E. B. Development banks: role and mechanisms to increase their efficiency. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 5729).
HANSON, J. A. Public sector banks and their transformation. 6th Annual Financial Markets and Development Conference (The Role of State-Owned Financial Institutions: policy and practice). Washington, DC, 2004.
HAMILTON, J. D. Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime. Journal of Econometrics, v. 45, p. 39-70, 1990.
HAMILTON, J. D. Time series analysis. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1994.
HERMANN, J. O papel dos bancos públicos. Brasília, DF: Cepal. Escritório no Brasil/Ipea, 2010. (Textos para Discussão, n. 15).
JAYME JR., F.; CROCCO, M. Bancos públicos e desenvolvimento. Rio de Janeiro: Ipea, 2010.
JOHANSEN, S.; JUSELIUS, K. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, v. 52, n. 2, p. 169-210, 1990.
JUSELIUS, K. The cointegrated VAR Model. New York: Oxford University Press, 2006.
KEYNES, J. M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936 (Teoria Geral do Emprego, do Juro e da Moeda. São Paulo: Saraiva, 2012).
KORNAI, J. Resource-constrained versus demand-constrained systems. Econometrica, v. 47, n. 4, p. 801-819, 1979.
KORNIYENKO, Y.; LOUKOIANOVA, E. The impact of unconventional monetary policy measures by the systemic four on global liquidity and monetary conditions. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, Dec. 2015. (IMF Working Paper, n. 15/287).
LUNA-MARTÍNEZ, J., VICENTE, C. L. Global survey of development banks. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 5.969).
LUNDBERG, E. L. Bancos oficiais e crédito direcionado – o que diferencia o mercado de crédito brasileiro? Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil, nov. 2011. (Trabalho para Discussão, n. 258).
MENDONÇA, M. J.; SACHSIDA, A. Identificando a demanda e a oferta de crédito bancário no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: Ipea, jun. 2013. (Texto para Discussão, n. 1837).
MICCO, A.; PANIZZA, U. Bank ownership and lending behavior. Economics Letters, Elsevier, v. 93, n. 2, p. 248-254, 2006.
MINISTÉRIO DA FAZENDA. Economia brasileira em perspectiva. Ed. Especial. Brasília, DF: Ministério da Fazenda, Brasil, dez. 2014.
MINSKY, H. P. Stabilizing an unstable economy. Yale University Press, 1986.
MODENESI et al. (Org.). Sistema financeiro e política econômica em uma era de instabilidade. Campus/Elsevier, 2012.
MORCK, R.; YAVUZ, M. D.; YEUNG, B. State-controlled banks and the effectiveness of monetary policy. NBER Working Paper, n. 19004, Apr. 2013.
NIER, E.; SEDIK, T. S.; MONDINO, T. Gross private capital flows to emerging markets: can the global financial cycle be tamed? IMF Working Paper, Washington, D. C., n. 196, Oct. 2014.
OLIVEIRA, F. N. Canal de empréstimo bancário no Brasil: evidência a partir dos empréstimos de empresas públicas e privadas. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, Brasília, v. 40, n. 2, p. 187-212, ago. 2010.
OLIVEIRA, F. N. Investment of firms in Brazil: do financial restrictions, unexpected monetary shocks and BNDES play important roles? Banco Central do Brasil. Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil, Oct. 2014. (Working Paper Series, n. 366).
OLIVEIRA, G. C. O comportamento do crédito e a reação do Banco Central e do sistema financeiro público e privado aos efeitos da crise internacional. In: ENCONTRO INTERNACIONAL DA ASSOCIAÇÃO KEYNESIANA BRASILEIRA, 2, Porto Alegre, set. 2009. Anais...
OLLIOQUI, F. (Ed.). Public development banks: toward a new paradigm? Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 2013.
QUANDT, R. E. A new approach to estimating switching regressions. Journal of the American Statistical Association, v. 67, n. 338, p. 306-310, 1972.
REY, H. Dilemma not trilemma: the global financial cycle and monetary policy independence. Paper presented at the 25th Jackson Hole Symposium, Kansas City, Aug. 2013.
REZENDE, F. Why does Brazil’s banking sector need public banks? What should BNDES do? New York: Levy Institute, Jan. 2015. (Working Paper, n. 825).
SCHUMPETER, J. A. Teoria do desenvolvimento econômico. São Paulo: Editora Abril, 1983 (1911). (Coleção Os Economistas).
SHLEIFER, A.; VISHNY, R. The Grabbing Hand: government pathologies and their cures. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1998.
THIBAUT, D. Bank ownership and credit cycle: the lower sensitivity of public bank lending to the business cycle. Paris: Paris School of Economics and Bank of France, 2012.
UNCTAD. Trade and Development Report 2014. Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2014.
WORLD BANK. Global Financial Development Report 2013: rethinking the role of government in finance. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012.
ANGINER, D.; DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, A.; ZHU, M. How does bank competition affect systemic stability? Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 5981).
ARAÚJO, V. L. Preferência pela liquidez dos bancos públicos no ciclo de expansão do crédito no Brasil: 2003-2010. Brasília: Ipea, jan. 2012. (Texto para Discussão, n. 1717).
ARAÚJO, V. L.; PIRES, M. J. S.; SILVA, M. F.; CASTRO, D. A. O estado atual das instituições financeiras públicas para o desenvolvimento na América Latina: uma análise exploratória. Brasília: Ipea, maio. 2011a. (Texto para Discussão, n. 1616).
ARAÚJO, V. L.; PIRES, M. J. S.; SILVA, M. F.; CASTRO, D. A. O sistema brasileiro de instituições financeiras subnacionais para o desenvolvimento: um panorama. Brasília: Ipea, jun. 2011b. (Texto Para Discussão, n. 1626).
ARAÚJO, V. L.; CINTRA, M. A. M. O papel dos bancos públicos federais na economia brasileira. Brasília: Ipea, abr. 2011. (Texto para Discussão, n. 1604).
ARESTIS, P.; SOBREIRA, R.; OREIRO, J. L. (Ed.). An assessment of the global impact of the financial crisis. Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.
BANCO CENTRAL DO BRASIL. Bulletin – Annual report (several years). Brasília, DF: Banco Central do Brasil, 2014.
BECK, T.; DEMIRGUC-KUNT, A.; LEVINE, R. Financial institutions and markets across countries and over time – data and analysis. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009. (Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 4943).
BERTAY, Ata Can; DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, Asli; HUIZINGA, Harry. Bank ownership and credit over the business cycle: is lending by State Banks less procyclical? Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6110).
BIS. 84th Annual Report. Basle: Bank for International Settlements, 2014.
BIS. 85th Annual Report. Basle: Bank for International Settlements, 2015.
BIS. 86th Annual Report. Basle: Bank for International Settlements. 2016.
BLANCHARD, O. et al. (Ed.). Progress and confusion: the state of macroeconomic policy. MIT Press, 2016.
BONOMO, M.; BRITO, R.; MARTINS, B. Macroeconomic and financial consequences of the after crisis government-driven credit expansion in Brazil. Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil, Dec. 2014. (Working Paper Series, n. 378).
BORIO, C. The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learnt? Basle: Bank for International Settlements, 2012. (BIS Working Papers, n. 395).
BORIO, C.; FURFINE, C.; LOWE. P. Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options. Basle: Bank for International Settlements, Mar. 2001. (BIS Papers, n. 1).
BRUNO, V.; SHIN, H. S. Capital flows, cross-border banking and global liquidity. Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 71, p. 119-132, Apr. 2015.
CAMPBELL, J. Y.; PERRON, P. Pitfalls and opportunities: what macroeconomists should know about unit roots and cointegration. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991.
CARVALHO, C. E.; TEPASSÊ, A. C. Banco público como banco comercial e múltiplo: elementos para a análise do caso brasileiro. In: JAYME JR., F.; CROCCO, M. Bancos públicos e desenvolvimento. Rio de Janeiro: Ipea, 2010.
CAVALCANTE, A.; CROCCO, M.; JAYME JÚNIOR, F. J. Preferência pela liquidez, sistema bancário e disponibilidade de crédito regional. Belo Horizonte: Cedeplar/UFMG, 2004. (Texto para Discussão, n. 237).
ČIHÁK, M.; DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. Rethinking the state’s role in finance. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6400).
ČIHÁK, M.; DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, A.; FEYEN, E; LEVINE, R. Benchmarking financial development around the world. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6175).
CORREA, P. R. R. et al. A estrutura do setor bancário brasileiro e o ciclo recente de expansão do crédito: o papel dos bancos públicos. In: ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ECONOMIA, 38, Anpec, 2010, Salvador. Anais...
COSTA, F. N. Atuação anticíclica dos bancos públicos brasileiros. Campinas, SP: Instituto de Economia/Unicamp, set. 2015. (Texto para a Discussão, n. 258).
CULL, R.; MARTÍNEZ PERÍA, M. S. Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008- 2009 financial crisis: evidence from Eastern Europe and Latin America. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6195).
CYNAMON B. Z.; FAZZARI, S.; SETTERFIELD, M. (Ed.). After the great recession: the struggle for economic recovery and growth. Cambridge University Press, 2013.
DE LA TORRE, A.; IZE, A.; SCHMUKLER, S. L. (Ed.). Financial development in Latin America and the Caribbean: the road ahead. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011.
DE LUNA-MARTÍNEZ, J.; VICENTE, C. L. Global survey of development banks. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 5969).
DE PAULA, L. F. R. Financial liberalization and economic performance: Brazil at the crossroads. London: Routledge, 2011.
DEMIRGÜÇ-KUNT, A.; FEYEN, E.; LEVINE, R. The evolving importance of banks and securities markets. World Bank Economic Review, p 1-15, Aug. 2012.
DICKEY, D.; JANSEN, D.; THORNTON, D. A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income. In: RAO, B. Cointegration for the applied economist. 2. ed. New York City: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007.
DOLADO J. J.; GONZALO, J.; MARMOL, F. Contegration. In: BALTAGI, B. H. (Ed.). A companion to theoretical econometrics. Wiley-Blackwell, 2003.
DOORNIK, Jurgen A. Econometric analysis with Markov-Switching Models – PcGive 14. 1 st ed. London: Timberlake Consultants Ltd, 2013. v. 1.
FERRARI FILHO, F. et al. Brazilian countercyclical economic policies as a response to the great recession: a critical analysis and an alternative proposal to ensure macroeconomic stability. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 36, p. 513-539, 2014.
FREITAS, M. C. P. A natureza particular da concorrência bancária e seus efeitos sobre a estabilidade financeira. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, n. 9, p. 51-84, jun. 1997.
GERSCHENKRON, A. Economic backwardness in historical perspective. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1962.
GOLDFELD, S. M.; QUANDT, R. E. A Markov Model for switching regressions. Journal of Econometrics, v. 1, p. 3-16, 1973.
GOODHART, C. A. E. Powers and scope of the macro-prudential authority In: LA BROSSE, J. R., OLIVARES-CAMINAL, R., SINGH, D. (Ed.). Financial crisis containment and government guarantees. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2013. p. 29-42.
GRANGER, C. W. J.; LEE, T. H. Multicointegration. In: ENGLE, R. F., GRANGER, W. J., Long-run economic relationships: reading in cointegration. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.
GRUSS, B. After the boom-commodity prices and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. IMF Working Paper, v. 14, n. 154, 2014.
GUTIÉRREZ, E.; RUDOLPH, H. P.; HOMA, T; BENEIT, E. B. Development banks: role and mechanisms to increase their efficiency. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2011. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 5729).
HANSON, J. A. Public sector banks and their transformation. 6th Annual Financial Markets and Development Conference (The Role of State-Owned Financial Institutions: policy and practice). Washington, DC, 2004.
HAMILTON, J. D. Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime. Journal of Econometrics, v. 45, p. 39-70, 1990.
HAMILTON, J. D. Time series analysis. New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1994.
HERMANN, J. O papel dos bancos públicos. Brasília, DF: Cepal. Escritório no Brasil/Ipea, 2010. (Textos para Discussão, n. 15).
JAYME JR., F.; CROCCO, M. Bancos públicos e desenvolvimento. Rio de Janeiro: Ipea, 2010.
JOHANSEN, S.; JUSELIUS, K. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, v. 52, n. 2, p. 169-210, 1990.
JUSELIUS, K. The cointegrated VAR Model. New York: Oxford University Press, 2006.
KEYNES, J. M. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936 (Teoria Geral do Emprego, do Juro e da Moeda. São Paulo: Saraiva, 2012).
KORNAI, J. Resource-constrained versus demand-constrained systems. Econometrica, v. 47, n. 4, p. 801-819, 1979.
KORNIYENKO, Y.; LOUKOIANOVA, E. The impact of unconventional monetary policy measures by the systemic four on global liquidity and monetary conditions. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, Dec. 2015. (IMF Working Paper, n. 15/287).
LUNA-MARTÍNEZ, J., VICENTE, C. L. Global survey of development banks. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 5.969).
LUNDBERG, E. L. Bancos oficiais e crédito direcionado – o que diferencia o mercado de crédito brasileiro? Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil, nov. 2011. (Trabalho para Discussão, n. 258).
MENDONÇA, M. J.; SACHSIDA, A. Identificando a demanda e a oferta de crédito bancário no Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: Ipea, jun. 2013. (Texto para Discussão, n. 1837).
MICCO, A.; PANIZZA, U. Bank ownership and lending behavior. Economics Letters, Elsevier, v. 93, n. 2, p. 248-254, 2006.
MINISTÉRIO DA FAZENDA. Economia brasileira em perspectiva. Ed. Especial. Brasília, DF: Ministério da Fazenda, Brasil, dez. 2014.
MINSKY, H. P. Stabilizing an unstable economy. Yale University Press, 1986.
MODENESI et al. (Org.). Sistema financeiro e política econômica em uma era de instabilidade. Campus/Elsevier, 2012.
MORCK, R.; YAVUZ, M. D.; YEUNG, B. State-controlled banks and the effectiveness of monetary policy. NBER Working Paper, n. 19004, Apr. 2013.
NIER, E.; SEDIK, T. S.; MONDINO, T. Gross private capital flows to emerging markets: can the global financial cycle be tamed? IMF Working Paper, Washington, D. C., n. 196, Oct. 2014.
OLIVEIRA, F. N. Canal de empréstimo bancário no Brasil: evidência a partir dos empréstimos de empresas públicas e privadas. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, Brasília, v. 40, n. 2, p. 187-212, ago. 2010.
OLIVEIRA, F. N. Investment of firms in Brazil: do financial restrictions, unexpected monetary shocks and BNDES play important roles? Banco Central do Brasil. Brasília: Banco Central do Brasil, Oct. 2014. (Working Paper Series, n. 366).
OLIVEIRA, G. C. O comportamento do crédito e a reação do Banco Central e do sistema financeiro público e privado aos efeitos da crise internacional. In: ENCONTRO INTERNACIONAL DA ASSOCIAÇÃO KEYNESIANA BRASILEIRA, 2, Porto Alegre, set. 2009. Anais...
OLLIOQUI, F. (Ed.). Public development banks: toward a new paradigm? Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 2013.
QUANDT, R. E. A new approach to estimating switching regressions. Journal of the American Statistical Association, v. 67, n. 338, p. 306-310, 1972.
REY, H. Dilemma not trilemma: the global financial cycle and monetary policy independence. Paper presented at the 25th Jackson Hole Symposium, Kansas City, Aug. 2013.
REZENDE, F. Why does Brazil’s banking sector need public banks? What should BNDES do? New York: Levy Institute, Jan. 2015. (Working Paper, n. 825).
SCHUMPETER, J. A. Teoria do desenvolvimento econômico. São Paulo: Editora Abril, 1983 (1911). (Coleção Os Economistas).
SHLEIFER, A.; VISHNY, R. The Grabbing Hand: government pathologies and their cures. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1998.
THIBAUT, D. Bank ownership and credit cycle: the lower sensitivity of public bank lending to the business cycle. Paris: Paris School of Economics and Bank of France, 2012.
UNCTAD. Trade and Development Report 2014. Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 2014.
WORLD BANK. Global Financial Development Report 2013: rethinking the role of government in finance. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012.
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