Palavras-chave
Lei de Thirlwall
Hipótese Prebisch-Singer
Cepal
Economia pós-keynesiana.
Como Citar
Resumo
Os modelos de crescimento com restrição no balanço de pagamentos (BOPC) podem ser utilizados para capturar importantes insights tanto da tradição keynesiana quanto estruturalista do pensamento econômico. Sugerimos que a Lei de Thirlwall corresponde a uma derivação matemática da regra de Prebisch. Dessa forma, este trabalho se propõe a estreitar a relação entre a Lei de Thirlwall e o pensamento cepalino por meio da inclusão, na primeira, de um componente que capte a hipótese Prebisch-Singer de deterioração dos termos de troca, empregando para tal uma definição de taxa de câmbio real alternativa. Chamamos a expressão final obtida de “regra Prebisch-Thirlwall”. Propomonos, ainda, a endogeneizar a taxa de crescimento do produto e da produtividade a partir da combinação de nossa versão da lei de Thirlwall com a lei de Kaldor-Verdoorn
Abstract
Thirlwall’s law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis: an assessment of the dynamics of terms-of-trade in a balance-of-payments-constraint growth model The balance-of-payments-constrained growth models (BOPC) can be used to capture key economic insights into both the Keynesian and structuralist tradition. We suggest that Thirlwall's Law corresponds to a mathematical derivation from Prebisch’s rule. Thus, this study aims to develop the relationship between Thirlwall's Law and ECLAC’s school of thought, adding a component to the first that captures the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, employing an alternative definition for the real exchange rate to do so. We call the final expression the Prebisch-Thirlwall rule. Further, we endogenize the output and productivity growth rate by combining our version of Thirlwall's law with the Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law.
Keywords: Economic growth; Thirlwall’s law; Prebisch-Singer hypothesis; Eclac, Post-Keynesian economics.
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