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É cada vez mais comum aos cientistas sociais descreverem os processos políticos como “dependentes da trajetória” (“path dependent”). O conceito, no entanto, é muitas vezes empregado sem uma elaboração cuidadosa. Este artigo conceitua dependência da trajetória enquanto um processo social baseado na dinâmica de “retornos crescentes”. Revisando a literatura recente em Economia e sugerindo ampliações para o mundo da Política, o artigo demonstra que os processos sujeitos a retornos crescentes provavelmente são predominantes e que existem boas bases analíticas para explorar suas causas e consequências. A pesquisa sobre retornos crescentes pode fornecer uma base mais rigorosa para o desenvolvimento de alguns dos pontos centrais do conhecimento recente em institucionalismo histórico: que padrões específicos de tempo (timing) e sequência (sequence) importam, que uma ampla gama de resultados sociais pode ser possível, que grandes consequências podem resultar de eventos relativamente pequenos ou contingentes, que cursos específicos de ação, uma vez iniciados, podem ser quase impossíveis de reverter e que consequentemente, o desenvolvimento político é pontuado por momentos críticos ou momentos (junctures) que moldam os contornos básicos da vida social.Referências
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