Opinião pública, estratégia presidencial e ação do congresso no Brasil: “quem manda?”

Autores

  • Carlos Pereira Michigan State University e Fundação Getúlio Vargas
  • Timothy Power Florida International University
  • Lúcio Rennó University of Arizona,

Palavras-chave:

Opinião pública. Executivo. Legislativo. Série temporal

Resumo

A relação entre o comportamento da elite política e as preferências gerais da população está no cerne de discussões sobre democracia representativa. Porém, pouco se sabe sobre quem influencia quem e quanto tempo demora para que tal influência seja sentida. Este artigo apresenta resultados a partir de um conjunto de dados organizados em série temporal que permite verificar a relação entre o clima da opinião pública, a escolha presidencial de instrumentos de governo (legislação extraordinária versus ordinária) e o apoio do congresso às iniciativas dos presidentes no Brasil. Foram coletadas observações mensais sobre a popularidade do presidente, padrões de votação nominal no congresso e uso de medidas provisórias, e da legislação comum, pelo executivo. Esse conjunto de dados permitiu testar, usando técnicas de séries temporais, o impacto dessas variáveis umas sobre as outras e a defasagem temporal necessária para que esses impactos se tornem significativos.

 

Abstract

The relationship between elite behavior and mass preferences is in the essence of discussions about representative democracy. However, very little is known about who influences whom and how long it takes for such influence to be felt. This article presents results from a time-series dataset that allows us to verify the relationship between the mood of public opinion, presidents’ choice of policy making instrument (extraordinary vs. ordinary legislation) and congressional support to presidents’ policy initiatives in Brazil. We collected monthly observations of presidential popularity, patterns of roll-call voting in congress and presidents use of “medidas provisórias” as well as regular legislation. This dataset allows us to test, using time-series techniques, the impact of these variables on each other and the amount of lags it takes for these impacts to become significant.

Keywords: public opinion, executive, legislative, time-series.

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Biografia do Autor

Carlos Pereira, Michigan State University e Fundação Getúlio Vargas

Pós-Doutor em Ciência Política pela University of Oxford (2000-2002); Doutor (2000) e Mestre (1996) em Ciência Política pela New School University-New York; Mestre em Sociologia pela Universidade Federal de Pernambuco (1994); e graduado em Medicina pela Universidade Estadual de Pernambuco (1990).

Timothy Power, Florida International University

I am a comparative political scientist with a deep commitment to interdisciplinary area studies. As an undergraduate at the University of Massachusetts in the early 1980s, I studied both Latin American literature and political science. I then completed an MA in interdisciplinary Latin American Studies at the University of Florida in 1986. I completed my PhD in political science at the University of Notre Dame in 1993, working mainly with the Kellogg Institute for International Studies, a centre that bears many similarities to SIAS. I then taught at Louisiana State University and Florida International University before arriving in Oxford in 2005. From 2008 to 2012 I directed the Latin American Centre, and I continue to direct the Brazilian Studies Programme within the LAC. - See more at: http://www.lac.ox.ac.uk/dr-timothy-j-power#sthash.36QFR4kS.dpuf

Lúcio Rennó, University of Arizona,

Tem diversas publicações em periódicos nacionais e internacionais, p.ex. em American Journal of Political Science, Legislative Studies Quarterly, Latin American Politics and Society, Journal of Politics, Journal of Latin American Studies, Journal of Legislative Studies, Electoral Studies, Revista Brasileira de Ciências Sociais, Novos Estudos Cebrap, Dados – Revista de Ciencias Sociais, e Opinião Pública. Também é co-autor do livro Legitimidade e Qualidade da Democracia no Brasil: Uma visão da cidadania, Editor Intermeios, Sao Paulo (2011) e co-editor dos livros Legislativo Brasileiro em Perspectiva Comparada (2009) e Reforma Política: Lições da História Recente (2006).

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Publicado

2015-10-22

Como Citar

Pereira, C., Power, T., & Rennó, L. (2015). Opinião pública, estratégia presidencial e ação do congresso no Brasil: “quem manda?”. Opinião Pública, 11(2), 400–421. Recuperado de https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/op/article/view/8641210

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