Palavras-chave
Voto
Pesquisas eleitorais
Voto estratégico
Indecisão
Como Citar
Resumo
As pesquisas de intenção de voto para presidente no primeiro turno de 2022 divergiram do resultado de domingo (2 de outubro), levando a críticas de que teriam sido cometidos erros. Este artigo examina uma explicação alternativa para o fato, segundo a qual mudanças de preferências ocorreriam entre as pesquisas e a votação. Embora impopular, a explicação tem respaldo na literatura com foco em dois processos: o voto estratégico e o alinhamento dos indecisos. Utilizando um experimento feito uma semana antes da eleição, mostramos que eleitores indecisos e de candidaturas menores apresentavam propensão a serem persuadidos por vídeos de campanha. Também utilizamos uma pesquisa feita às vésperas do pleito, para desenvolver modelos que identificam eleitores propensos a mudarem suas escolhas, de modo a ajustar a estimativa da votação. Os resultados sugerem que as mudanças tardias seriam um fenômeno mais do que plausível nas eleições brasileiras recentes.
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