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Entre a lei de Thirlwall e a hipótese Prebisch-Singer: uma avaliação da dinâmica dos termos de troca em um modelo de crescimento com restrição no Balanço de Pagamentos
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Palavras-chave

Crescimento econômico
Lei de Thirlwall
Hipótese Prebisch-Singer
Cepal
Economia pós-keynesiana.

Como Citar

DÁVILA-FERNÁNDEZ, M.; AMADO, A. Entre a lei de Thirlwall e a hipótese Prebisch-Singer: uma avaliação da dinâmica dos termos de troca em um modelo de crescimento com restrição no Balanço de Pagamentos. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 24, n. 1, p. 87–119, 2015. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8642118. Acesso em: 1 mar. 2024.

Resumo

Os modelos de crescimento com restrição no balanço de pagamentos (BOPC) podem ser utilizados para capturar importantes insights tanto da tradição keynesiana quanto estruturalista do pensamento econômico. Sugerimos que a Lei de Thirlwall corresponde a uma derivação matemática da regra de Prebisch. Dessa forma, este trabalho se propõe a estreitar a relação entre a Lei de Thirlwall e o pensamento cepalino por meio da inclusão, na primeira, de um componente que capte a hipótese Prebisch-Singer de deterioração dos termos de troca, empregando para tal uma definição de taxa de câmbio real alternativa. Chamamos a expressão final obtida de “regra Prebisch-Thirlwall”. Propomonos, ainda, a endogeneizar a taxa de crescimento do produto e da produtividade a partir da combinação de nossa versão da lei de Thirlwall com a lei de Kaldor-Verdoorn

 

Abstract

Thirlwall’s law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis: an assessment of the dynamics of terms-of-trade in a balance-of-payments-constraint growth model The balance-of-payments-constrained growth models (BOPC) can be used to capture key economic insights into both the Keynesian and structuralist tradition. We suggest that Thirlwall's Law corresponds to a mathematical derivation from Prebisch’s rule. Thus, this study aims to develop the relationship between Thirlwall's Law and ECLAC’s school of thought, adding a component to the first that captures the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, employing an alternative definition for the real exchange rate to do so. We call the final expression the Prebisch-Thirlwall rule. Further, we endogenize the output and productivity growth rate by combining our version of Thirlwall's law with the Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law.

Keywords: Economic growth; Thirlwall’s law; Prebisch-Singer hypothesis; Eclac, Post-Keynesian economics.

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