Palavras-chave
Financial liberalization
Policy space
Brazilian economy.
Policy space
Brazilian economy.
Como Citar
CARMEM FEIJO; LAMÔNICA, Marcos Tostes; LIMA, Serigiano Silva. Financial liberalization and structural change: the Brazilian case in the 2000s. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 28, n. 1, p. 177–200, 2019. Disponível em: https://periodicos.sbu.unicamp.br/ojs/index.php/ecos/article/view/8656955. Acesso em: 25 abr. 2024.
Resumo
This paper discusses the relationship between financial integration and structural change based on a Minsky-Kregel approach. The motivation for this investigation derives from the fact that the opening of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s did not generate a structural change capable of increasing the weight of higher-technological sectors in the manufacturing industry. In theoretical terms we assume that financial liberalization in developing countries induces the loss in importance of the industrial sector in the productive structure, leading to an early deindustrialization process. In addition, it increases the external fragility and reduces the scope for developing countries to implement long-term economic policies to increase their potential output. In our econometric exercise applied to the Brazilian economy in the 2000s it was observed that financial integration and dependence on foreign savings, captured by an international liquidity proxy and dummy variables to incorporate the external financial instability in the period studied, reduced the share of Brazilian industry in GDP.
Referências
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ARESTIS, P. Financial liberalization and the relationship between finance and growth. In: ARESTIS, P.; SAWYER, M. A handbook of alternative monetary economics. Edgar Elgar, 2006.
AZEVEDO, A F Z de, FEIJO, C.; CORONEL, D. A. A desindustrialização brasileira. Editora Unisinos, 2013.
BACHA, E.; de BOLLE, M. B. O futuro da indústria no Brasil: desindustrialização em debate. Rio de Janeiro: Civilização Brasileira, 2013.
BARBOSA FILHO, N. H. International liquidity and growth fluctuations in Brazil, chapter 13th . In: EPSTEIN, G. Financialization and the world economy. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2005.
BIANCARELLI, A. M. A visão convencional sobre a abertura financeira e suas mutações recentes. Estudos Econômicos, v. 40, n. 4, p. 917-942, 2010.
BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK. Available at: www.bcb.gov.br. Access in: 2016, Mar.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C. Novo desenvolvimentismo e ortodoxia convencional. In: DINIZ, Eli (Org.). Globalização, estado e desenvolvimento. São Paulo: FGV Editora, 2006.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C. Globalization and competition. Why some emerging countries succeed while others fall behind. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C.; NAKANO, Y. Uma estratégia de desenvolvimento com estabilidade. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 22, n. 3, p. 146-180, 2002.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C.; GALA, P. Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand and low growth. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 30, n. 3, p. 315-334, 2008.
BRESSER-PERERA, L. C.; ARAÚJO, E.; GALA, P. An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil. EconomiA, Brasília, v. 15, p. 54-67, 2014.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C.; OREIRO, J. L.; MARCONI, N. Developmental Macroeconomics: new developmentalism as a growth strategy. London: Routledge, 2015.
CARNEIRO, R. Globalização financeira e inserção periférica. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, v. 13, p. 57-92, 1999.
CARVALHO, F. J. C. de. The accumulation of international reserves as a defensive strategy: reasons and limitations of self-insurance. In: STIGLITZ, J.; GRIFFITH-JONES, S.; OCAMPO, J. A. (Ed.). Financial markets reform. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009.
FEIJO, C.; LAMONICA, M. Importancia del sector industrial para el desarrollo de la economia de la economia brasileña. Revista de la Cepal, v. 107, n. 2, p. 107-126, 2012.
FEIJO, C.; LAMONICA, M. Policy space in a financially integrated world: the Brazilian case in the 2000s. Panoeconomicus, advanced online publication, 2017. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/PAN160502002F.
FEIJO, C.; LAMONICA, M.; BASTOS, J. Accumulation pattern of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s. International Review of Applied Economics, v. 29, n. 1, p. 15-31, 2015.
FEIJO, C.; LAMONICA, M.; BASTOS, J. Why does the investment rate do not increase? Capital accumulation and stabilization policy in the 1990s and 200s in Brazil. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 39, n. 4, p. 539-561, 2016.
FERRARI FILHO, F.; DE PAULA, L. F. Regime cambial, conversibilidade da conta de capital e performance econômica: a experiência recente de Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China. In: SICSÚ, J.; FERRARI FILHO, F. (Ed.). Câmbio e controle de capitais: avaliando a eficiência de modelos macroeconômicos. Rio de Janeiro: Ed. Campus, 2006.
FERRARI, M. A. R.; FREITAS, F. N. P.; BARBOSA FILHO, N. A taxa de câmbio real e a restrição externa: uma proposta da releitura com elasticidades endógenas. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 33, n. 1, p. 60-81, 2013.
IBGE. Brazilian Statistical Office. Available at: www.ibge.gov.br. Access in: 2016, Mar. IPEAdata. Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada. Available at: www.ipeadata.gov.br. Access in: 2016, Mar.
KEGEL. J. Was there an alternative to the Brazilian crisis? Brazilian Journal of Economic Policy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 19, n. 3, p. 23-38, 1999.
KREGEL, J. Can we create a stable international financial environment that ensures net resource transfers to developing countries? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 26, n. 4, p. 573-590, 2004.
MARCONI, N. The industrial equilibrium exchange rate in Brazil: an estimation. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 32, p. 656-669, 2012.
McKINNON, R. I. Money and capital in economic development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1973.
NASSIF, A.; FEIJO, C. Liberal versus neo-developmental convention to growth: why has Brazil shown a poor performance since the 1980s? Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 33, n. 4, p. 555-576, 2013.
NASSIF, A.; FEIJO, C.; ARAUJO, E. Structural change and economic development: is Brazil catching up or falling behind? Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 39, p. 1307-1332, 2015.
NASSIF, A.; FEIJO, C.; ARAUJO, E. (2015a) Overvaluation Trend of the Brazilian Currency in the 2000s: Empirical Estimation. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), vol. 35, no.1, pp. 3-27.
NASSIF, A.; FEIJO, C.; ARAUJO, E. Structural change, catching up and falling behind in the BRICS’s: a comparative analysis based on trade patterns and Thirlwall’s law. PSL Quarterly Review, v. 69, n. 278, p. 373-421, 2016.
OCAMPO, J. A. Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy. Initiative for Policy Dialogue Working Paper Series, Oct. 2013. Available at: http://policydialogue.org/files/publications/Balance_of_payments_dominance_Ocampo.pdf.
OCAMPO, J. A.; STIGLITZ, J. E. Capital market liberalization and development. Oxford Scholarship Online, 2008, May. Available at: http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199230587.001.0001/acprof-9780199230587.
OREIRO, J. L.; FEIJO, C. Desindustrialização: conceituação, causas, efeitos e o caso brasileiro. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 30, n. 2, p. 219-232, 2010.
OREIJO, J. L.; ARAÚJO, E. Exchange rate misalignment, capital accumulation and income distribution: theory and evidence from the case of Brazil. Panoeconomicus, v. 60, p. 381-396, 2013.
PAINCEIRA, J. P. Developing countries in the era of financialisation: from deficit accumulation to reserve accumulation. Research on Money and Finance, School of Oriental and African Studies, 2009. (Discussion Paper, n. 4).
PAULA, L. F. R.; MODENESI, A.; PIRES, M. C. C. The tale of the contagion of two crises and policy responses in Brazil: a case of (Keynesian) policy coordination? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 37, p. 408-435, 2015.
PAULA, L. F. R.; FRITZ, B.; PRATES, D. M. Keynes at the periphery: currency hierarchy and challenges for economic policy in emerging economies. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 40, n. 2, p. 183-202, 2017.
RODRIK, D. Premature deindustrialization. Journal of Economic Growth, v. 21, p. 1-33, 2016.
SHAW, E. S. Financial deepening in economic development. New York: Oxford University Press, 1973.
SICSÚ, J. Rumos da liberalização financeira brasileira. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 26, n. 3, p. 364-380, 2006.
ARESTIS, P. Financial liberalization and the relationship between finance and growth. In: ARESTIS, P.; SAWYER, M. A handbook of alternative monetary economics. Edgar Elgar, 2006.
AZEVEDO, A F Z de, FEIJO, C.; CORONEL, D. A. A desindustrialização brasileira. Editora Unisinos, 2013.
BACHA, E.; de BOLLE, M. B. O futuro da indústria no Brasil: desindustrialização em debate. Rio de Janeiro: Civilização Brasileira, 2013.
BARBOSA FILHO, N. H. International liquidity and growth fluctuations in Brazil, chapter 13th . In: EPSTEIN, G. Financialization and the world economy. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2005.
BIANCARELLI, A. M. A visão convencional sobre a abertura financeira e suas mutações recentes. Estudos Econômicos, v. 40, n. 4, p. 917-942, 2010.
BRAZILIAN CENTRAL BANK. Available at: www.bcb.gov.br. Access in: 2016, Mar.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C. Novo desenvolvimentismo e ortodoxia convencional. In: DINIZ, Eli (Org.). Globalização, estado e desenvolvimento. São Paulo: FGV Editora, 2006.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C. Globalization and competition. Why some emerging countries succeed while others fall behind. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C.; NAKANO, Y. Uma estratégia de desenvolvimento com estabilidade. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 22, n. 3, p. 146-180, 2002.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C.; GALA, P. Foreign savings, insufficiency of demand and low growth. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 30, n. 3, p. 315-334, 2008.
BRESSER-PERERA, L. C.; ARAÚJO, E.; GALA, P. An empirical study of the substitution of foreign for domestic savings in Brazil. EconomiA, Brasília, v. 15, p. 54-67, 2014.
BRESSER-PEREIRA, L. C.; OREIRO, J. L.; MARCONI, N. Developmental Macroeconomics: new developmentalism as a growth strategy. London: Routledge, 2015.
CARNEIRO, R. Globalização financeira e inserção periférica. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, v. 13, p. 57-92, 1999.
CARVALHO, F. J. C. de. The accumulation of international reserves as a defensive strategy: reasons and limitations of self-insurance. In: STIGLITZ, J.; GRIFFITH-JONES, S.; OCAMPO, J. A. (Ed.). Financial markets reform. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009.
FEIJO, C.; LAMONICA, M. Importancia del sector industrial para el desarrollo de la economia de la economia brasileña. Revista de la Cepal, v. 107, n. 2, p. 107-126, 2012.
FEIJO, C.; LAMONICA, M. Policy space in a financially integrated world: the Brazilian case in the 2000s. Panoeconomicus, advanced online publication, 2017. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/PAN160502002F.
FEIJO, C.; LAMONICA, M.; BASTOS, J. Accumulation pattern of the Brazilian economy in the 1990s and 2000s. International Review of Applied Economics, v. 29, n. 1, p. 15-31, 2015.
FEIJO, C.; LAMONICA, M.; BASTOS, J. Why does the investment rate do not increase? Capital accumulation and stabilization policy in the 1990s and 200s in Brazil. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 39, n. 4, p. 539-561, 2016.
FERRARI FILHO, F.; DE PAULA, L. F. Regime cambial, conversibilidade da conta de capital e performance econômica: a experiência recente de Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China. In: SICSÚ, J.; FERRARI FILHO, F. (Ed.). Câmbio e controle de capitais: avaliando a eficiência de modelos macroeconômicos. Rio de Janeiro: Ed. Campus, 2006.
FERRARI, M. A. R.; FREITAS, F. N. P.; BARBOSA FILHO, N. A taxa de câmbio real e a restrição externa: uma proposta da releitura com elasticidades endógenas. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 33, n. 1, p. 60-81, 2013.
IBGE. Brazilian Statistical Office. Available at: www.ibge.gov.br. Access in: 2016, Mar. IPEAdata. Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada. Available at: www.ipeadata.gov.br. Access in: 2016, Mar.
KEGEL. J. Was there an alternative to the Brazilian crisis? Brazilian Journal of Economic Policy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 19, n. 3, p. 23-38, 1999.
KREGEL, J. Can we create a stable international financial environment that ensures net resource transfers to developing countries? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 26, n. 4, p. 573-590, 2004.
MARCONI, N. The industrial equilibrium exchange rate in Brazil: an estimation. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 32, p. 656-669, 2012.
McKINNON, R. I. Money and capital in economic development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1973.
NASSIF, A.; FEIJO, C. Liberal versus neo-developmental convention to growth: why has Brazil shown a poor performance since the 1980s? Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 33, n. 4, p. 555-576, 2013.
NASSIF, A.; FEIJO, C.; ARAUJO, E. Structural change and economic development: is Brazil catching up or falling behind? Cambridge Journal of Economics, v. 39, p. 1307-1332, 2015.
NASSIF, A.; FEIJO, C.; ARAUJO, E. (2015a) Overvaluation Trend of the Brazilian Currency in the 2000s: Empirical Estimation. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), vol. 35, no.1, pp. 3-27.
NASSIF, A.; FEIJO, C.; ARAUJO, E. Structural change, catching up and falling behind in the BRICS’s: a comparative analysis based on trade patterns and Thirlwall’s law. PSL Quarterly Review, v. 69, n. 278, p. 373-421, 2016.
OCAMPO, J. A. Balance of payments dominance: its implications for macroeconomic policy. Initiative for Policy Dialogue Working Paper Series, Oct. 2013. Available at: http://policydialogue.org/files/publications/Balance_of_payments_dominance_Ocampo.pdf.
OCAMPO, J. A.; STIGLITZ, J. E. Capital market liberalization and development. Oxford Scholarship Online, 2008, May. Available at: http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199230587.001.0001/acprof-9780199230587.
OREIRO, J. L.; FEIJO, C. Desindustrialização: conceituação, causas, efeitos e o caso brasileiro. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 30, n. 2, p. 219-232, 2010.
OREIJO, J. L.; ARAÚJO, E. Exchange rate misalignment, capital accumulation and income distribution: theory and evidence from the case of Brazil. Panoeconomicus, v. 60, p. 381-396, 2013.
PAINCEIRA, J. P. Developing countries in the era of financialisation: from deficit accumulation to reserve accumulation. Research on Money and Finance, School of Oriental and African Studies, 2009. (Discussion Paper, n. 4).
PAULA, L. F. R.; MODENESI, A.; PIRES, M. C. C. The tale of the contagion of two crises and policy responses in Brazil: a case of (Keynesian) policy coordination? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 37, p. 408-435, 2015.
PAULA, L. F. R.; FRITZ, B.; PRATES, D. M. Keynes at the periphery: currency hierarchy and challenges for economic policy in emerging economies. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 40, n. 2, p. 183-202, 2017.
RODRIK, D. Premature deindustrialization. Journal of Economic Growth, v. 21, p. 1-33, 2016.
SHAW, E. S. Financial deepening in economic development. New York: Oxford University Press, 1973.
SICSÚ, J. Rumos da liberalização financeira brasileira. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy (Revista de Economia Política), v. 26, n. 3, p. 364-380, 2006.
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