Resumo
As análises correntes deixam explícito que o candidato Jair Bolsonaro (Partido Social
Liberal) conseguiu galvanizar um conservadorismo latente da população, à espera
de uma liderança capaz de traduzir anseios pouco representados nas disputas
presidenciais. Esses estudos padecem de um problema de endogeneidade: afinal,
Bolsonaro também seria capaz de deixar o eleitorado mais conservador? Para
iluminar essa questão, utilizamos uma técnica de matching, a fim de produzir um
arcabouço que minimize vieses de variável omitida e problemas de simultaneidade.
Como resultado, propomos que a vinculação ideológica dos eleitores com Bolsonaro
não reside somente na capacidade de atração da parcela conservadora do eleitorado,
mas na mudança de posicionamento dos eleitores ao longo do pleito para se alinhar
com as ideias expostas pelo então candidato, o que chamamos de "efeito Bolsonaro".
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