Palavras-chave
Investimento privado
Sensibilidades
Como Citar
Resumo
Este artigo desenvolve, com base na perspectiva pós-keynesiana, a hipótese de que a deterioração da infraestrutura de um país inibe o investimento privado e reduz suas sensibilidades em relação aos seus determinantes, como a taxa de juros real, crédito, taxa de câmbio real, investimento público e infraestrutura. A hipótese é testada para o período 1985-2013 para seis economias da América Latina, empregando os estimadores dynamic fixed effects, pooled mean group e cross sectionally augmented pooled mean group em um painel dinâmico heterogêneo. Os resultados indicam o impacto positivo da infraestrutura sobre a formação de capital privado. Sugerem também que a deterioração do estoque de infraestrutura promove quedas na sensibilidade do investimento privado em relação aos seus determinantes, o que reduz a potência da política econômica em estimular o investimento privado via mudanças em seus determinantes.
Referências
AGENÓR, P-R.; CANUTO, O. Middle-income growth traps Washington: Word Bank, 2012. (Policy Research Working Paper, n. 6210).
ASCHAUER, D. A. Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics, v. 23, p. 177-200, 1989a.
ASCHAUER, D. A. Public investment and productivity growth Macroeconomic Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1989b. p. 89-113. (Working Paper Series).
BARRO, R. Government spending in a simple model of endogenous growth. Journal of Political Economy, n. 5, part 2, p. S103-S125, Oct. 1990.
BELLOC, M.; VERTOVA, P. How does public investment affect economic growth in HIPC? An empirical assessment. Department of Economics, University of Siena, 416, 2004.
BRIGUGLIO, D.; DIMITRIADIS, L.; MAESTRI. V.; PAPA, G. Private investment in Italy European, 2019.
ECONOMY. Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. 2015. (Discussion Papers, n. 108).
BINDER, M.; OFFERMANNS, C.J. International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: a dynamic panel analysis. CESIFO, 2007. (Working Paper, n. 2095).
BLEJER, M. S.; KHAN, M. S. Government policy and private investment in developing countries. IMF Staff Papers, v. 31, n. 2, p. 379-403, 1984.
CALDERÓN, C.; SERVÉN, L. The effects of infrastructure development on growth and income distribution Central Bank of Chile, 2004. (Working Paper, n. 270).
CALDERÓN, C.; SERVÉN, L. Infrastructure in Latin America: an update, 1980-2006. World Bank Other Operational Studies, n. 3182, 2009.
CALDERÓN, C.; SERVÉN, L. Infrastructure in Latin America World Bank Policy Research, 2010. (Working Paper, n. 5317).
CARRANZA, L.; MELGUIZO, C. Public infrastructure investment and fiscal sustainability in Latin America: incompatible goals? Journal of Economic Studies, v. 41, n. 1, p. 29-50, 2014.
CARVALHO F. J. C. Expectativas, Incerteza e convenções. In: ESTRATÉGIAS de desenvolvimento, política industrial e inovação: ensaios em memória de Fabio Erber. Rio de Janeiro: BNDES, 2014. p. 207-234.
DRAPER, N. R.; SMITH, H. Applied regression analysis. 3. ed. EUA, John Wiley and Sons, 1998. 706p.
DUMITRESCU, E. I.; HURLIN, C. Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, v. 29, n. 4, p. 1450-1460, 2012.
ERDEN, L.; HOLCOMBE, R. G. The effects of public investment on private investment in developing economies. Public Finance Review, v. 33, n. 5, p. 575-602, 2005.
FAVARA, G. An empirical reassessment of the relationship between finance and growth. IMF Working Paper, n. 3/123, 2003.
FRAGA, J. Infraestrutura econômica, incerteza e investimento privado Tese (Doutorado em Economia)–Cedeplar/UFMG, 2019.
GALA, P. Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and empirical evidence. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge, v. 32, p. 273-288, 2008.
GIESENOW, Federico M.; HAAN, De Jakob. The influence of government ideology on monetary policy: new cross‐country evidence based on dynamic heterogeneous panels. Economics & Politics, v. 31, Issue 2, p. 216-239, Jul. 2019.
GREENE, J.; VILLANUEVA, D. Private investment in developing countries: an empirical analysis. IMF Staff Papers, v. 38, n. 1, 1991.
HIRSCHMAN, A. O. The strategy of economic development New Haven: Yale University Press, 1958.
INFRALATAM. Datos de inversión en infraestructure económica em América Latina y el Caribe Disponível em: http://infralatam.info/ Acesso em: 10 set. 2016.
IM, K. S.; PESARAN, M. H.; SHIN, Y. Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. University of Cambridge. Department of Applied Economics, 1997.
IM, K. S.; LEE, J.; TIESLAU, M. Panel LM unit root tests with level shifts. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Oxford, v. 67, n. 3, p. 393-419, Jun. 2005.
IMF – International Monetary Fund. Investment and capital stock dataset. Estimating public, private capital stocks. 2015. Disponível em: www.imfstatistics.org/imf/about.asp Acesso em: 5 set.2019.
KAPETANIOS, G.; PESARAN, M. H.; YAMAGATA, T. Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures. Journal of Econometrics, v. 160, n. 2, p. 326-348, 2011.
KEYNES, J. M. The general theory of employment, interest and money The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, VII, London: Macmillan. 1973
KEYNES, J. M. A Treatise on Probability. The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. VIII, London: MacMillan for the Royal Economic Society. 1973a.
KOPP, E. Determinants of U.S. business investment. IMF Working Paper, n. 18/139, 2018.
KUTNER, M. H.; NACHTSHEIM, C. J.; NETER, J.; LI, W. Applied linear statistical models. 5. ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, Irwin, 2005.
LEWIS, A. Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel. December 8, 1979. In: LINDBECK Assar (Ed.). Nobel Lectures, Economics 1969-1980 Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co., 1992.
MADDALA, G. S.; WU, S. A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, v. 61, n. 631-652, 1999.
MARTIN, M. Fiscal policy, R&D, and innovation Evidence from OECD countries. Dissertation/Master (Master in Economics)–Lund University, 2021.
MARTINS NETO, A. S.; LIMA, G. T. Competitive exchange rate and public infrastructure in a macrodynamic of economic growth. Metroeconomica, v. 68, n. 4, p. 792-815, 2017.
NGUYEN, M. XTSUR: Stata module to estimate seemingly unrelated regression model on unbalanced panel data. Statistical Software Component n. S456953. Boston College Department of Economics, 2010.
NURKESE, R. Problems of capital formation in underdeveloped countries Oxford University Press, 1953.
PEDRONI, P. Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, v. 61, p. 653-670, 1999.
PESARAN, M. H.; HSIAO, C.; TAHMISCIOGLU, A. K. Bayes estimation of short-run coefficients in dynamic panel data models. In: Hsiao C.; LAHIRI K.; LEE, L.-F.; PESARAN, M. H. (Ed.). Analysis of panels and limited dependent variables. Cambridge University Press, 1999. p. 268-296.
PESARAN, M. H. General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CESifo Working n. 1229, 2004.
PESARAN, M. H.; SHIN, Y.; SMITH, R. P. Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, v. 94, n. 446, p. 621-634, 1999.
PESARAN, M. H.; SMITH, R. Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, v. 68, n. 1, p. 79-113, 1995.
PESARAN, M. H. A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, v. 22, p. 265-312, 2007.
PHILIPPS, P.; HANSEN, B. E. Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. The Review of Economic Studies, v. 57, n. 1, p. 99-125, 1990.
POSSAS, M. L. Racionalidade e regulariedades: rumo a uma integração micro-macrodinâmica. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, 1993.
RAMIREZ, M. D. Public and private investment in Mexico, 1950-90: an empirical analysis. Southern Economic Journal, v. 61, n. 1, p. 1-17, 1994.
RAPETTI, M.; SKOTT, P.; RAZMI, A. The real exchange rate and economic growth: are developing countries different? International Review of Applied Economics, v. 26, n. 6, p. 735-753, 2012.
RESENDE, M. F. C.; TERRA, F. H. B. Economic and social policies inconsistency, conventions, and crisis in the Brazilian economy, 2011–2016. In: ARESTIS P.; BALTAR, C.; PRATES, D. (Ed.). The Brazilian economy since the great financial crisis of 2007/2008 Palgrave Macmillan, 2017.
RIBEIRO, R. S. M.; MCCOMBIE, J. S. L.; LIMA, G. T. Some unpleasant currency-devaluation arithmetic in a post Keynesian macromodel. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 40, p. 145-167, 2017.
RODRIK, D. The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, v. 39, n. 2, p. 365-439, 2008.
ROZAS, P.; SÁNCHEZ R. Desarrollo de infraestructura y crecimiento económico: revisión conceptual. Santiago: ECLAC, 2004.
ROSENSTEIN-RODAN, P. N. Notes on the Theory of the ‘Big Push’. Economic development for Latin America. Proceedings of a Conference held by the International Economic Association, 1961.
SAMARGANDI, N.; FIDRMUC, J.; GHOSH, S. Is the relationship between financial development and economic growth monotonic? Evidence from a sample of middle-income countries. World Development, v. 68, p. 66-81, 2015.
SANTOS, C. H.; PIRES, M. C. C. Qual a sensibilidade dos investimentos privados a aumentos na carga tributária brasileira? Uma investigação econométrica. Brasília, DF: DIRUR/Ipea, 2007.
SICSÚ, J. Emprego, juros e câmbio: finanças globais e desemprego. Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier, 2007.
TORRES, D. A. R.; RESENDE, M. F. C. Liquidez internacional e formação bruta de capital fixo: evidências econométricas para as economias desenvolvidas e em desenvolvimento. Análise Econômica, n. 63, p. 277-301, 2015.
WESTERLUND, J. Estimating cointegrated panels with common factors and the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis. Journal of Financial Econometrics, v. 5, n. 3, p. 491-522, 2007.
WOOLDRIDGE, Jeffrey M. Introdução à econometria – uma abordagem moderna. Thomson, 2006.
WORLD BANK. World Bank Indicadors Online Washington, D. C.: Data and Statistic. Disponível em: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator. Acesso em: 5 maio 2019.
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2023 Economia e Sociedade
Downloads
