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Infraestrutura, expectativas e investimento


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FRAGA, Jefferson Souza; RESENDE, Marco Flávio da Cunha. Infraestrutura, expectativas e investimento: evidências empíricas para a América Latina. Economia e Sociedade, Campinas, SP, v. 32, n. 1, p. 79–102, 2023. Disponível em: Acesso em: 23 jul. 2024.


Este artigo desenvolve, com base na perspectiva pós-keynesiana, a hipótese de que a deterioração da infraestrutura de um país inibe o investimento privado e reduz suas sensibilidades em relação aos seus determinantes, como a taxa de juros real, crédito, taxa de câmbio real, investimento público e infraestrutura. A hipótese é testada para o período 1985-2013 para seis economias da América Latina, empregando os estimadores dynamic fixed effectspooled mean group e cross sectionally augmented pooled mean group em um painel dinâmico heterogêneo. Os resultados indicam o impacto positivo da infraestrutura sobre a formação de capital privado. Sugerem também que a deterioração do estoque de infraestrutura promove quedas na sensibilidade do investimento privado em relação aos seus determinantes, o que reduz a potência da política econômica em estimular o investimento privado via mudanças em seus determinantes.



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