Palavras-chave
China
Desenvolvimento econômico
Regimes de crescimento
Mudança estrutural
Como Citar
Resumo
O presente artigo examina os fundamentos da recente desaceleração do crescimento econômico da China, considerando tanto uma perspectiva de crescimento liderado pela demanda quanto as mudanças estruturais ao longo das últimas décadas. Argumenta-se que tal desaceleração corresponde, em parte, a uma trajetória desejada em direção a um padrão de crescimento baseado em um maior protagonismo do consumo interno e em uma economia mais equilibrada e focada na inovação. Esta mudança denominada “Novo normal” respondeu às tendências estruturais externas e internas e aos conflitos distributivos e institucionais que, após 2008, reduziram a trajetória de crescimento baseada em baixos salários e geraram elevados investimentos especulativos imobiliários. Sustenta-se que o “Novo normal” conduzirá possivelmente a uma taxa de crescimento moderada para a experiência histórica da China, mas superior à da OCDE, e possivelmente mais equilibrada social e ambientalmente do que anteriormente.
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