Palavras-chave
Crowdfunding
Modelagem logit
Financiamento
Como Citar
Dados de financiamento
Resumo
Crowdfunding é uma técnica de financiamento coletivo em que pessoas físicas reúnem seus recursos para apoiar iniciativas sem intermediários financeiros. Essa técnica teve grande impacto na indústria de jogos eletrônicos, viabilizando projetos nos quais os produtores tradicionais não tinham interesse. Neste contexto, pode-se questionar quais variáveis estão associadas ao sucesso de uma campanha de arrecadação de fundos, contribuindo ao ampliar a ainda escassa literatura sobre crowdfunding na indústria de jogos. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar os projetos no setor de jogos eletrônicos na plataforma Kickstarter entre 2013 e 2017, investigando os fatores que levam ao êxito na arrecadação, realizando o teste de hipótese por meio de um modelo de regressão logística. Uma maior disponibilidade de informações, qualidade e preparo por parte do lançador tendem a ter resultados positivos na arrecadação de fundos. Esses indicativos podem auxiliar na elaboração de esforços de arrecadação futuros.
Referências
ADAMS, C. Crowdfunding guidance and practice: value added co-creation. In: INTERNET, POLITICS AND POLICY (IPP) CONFERENCES, 2014, Oxford. Proceedings... Oxford: Oxford Internet Institute, 2014.
AGRESTI, A. Categorical data analysis. Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, 2003.
AKOBENG, A. K. Understanding diagnostic tests 3: receiver operating characteristic curves. Acta Paediatrica, Oslo, v. 96, n. 5, p. 644-647,
ALEANDRO, G. Infográfico: jogos e quadrinhos ultrapassam R$ 7 milhões arrecadados no Catarse. Catarse, 19 dez. 2017. Disponível em: http://blog.catarse.me/jogos-e-quadrinhos-ultrapassam-r7-milhoes-arrecadados-no-catarse. Acesso em: 2 fev. 2021.
BÖNTE, W.; NIELEN, S. Product innovation, credit constraints, and trade credit: evidence from a cross-country study. Managerial and
Decision Economics, Chichester, v. 32, n. 6, p. 413-424, 2011.
CASTELAR, I. et al. Uma análise dos determinantes de desempenho em concurso público. Economia Aplicada, São Paulo, v. 14, n. 1, p. 81-98, 2010.
CHA, J. Crowdfunding for video games: factors that influence the success of and capital pledged for campaigns. International Journal on Media Management, Switzerland, v. 19, n. 3, p. 240-259, 2017.
CROITORU, A.; SCHUMPETER, J. A. The theory of economic development: an inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest and the business cycle. Journal of Comparative Research in Anthropology & Sociology, București, v. 3, n. 2, p. 137-148, 2012.
DOAN, A.; RAMAKRISHNAN, R.; HALEVY, A. Y. Crowdsourcing systems on the World-Wide Web. Communications of the ACM, New York, v. 54, n. 4, p. 86-96, 2011.
ENTERTAINMENT SOFTWARE ASSOCIATION. Essential facts about the computer and video game industry. Massachusetts: ESA, 2017. Disponível em: https://www.theesa.com/esa-research/2017-essential-facts-about-the-computer-and-video-game-industry. Acesso em: 2 fev. 2021.
FAWCETT, T. An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, Amsterdam, v. 27, n. 8, p. 861-874, 2006.
FLEURY, A.; NAKANO, D.; CORDEIRO, J. H. Mapeamento da indústria brasileira e global de jogos digitais. São Paulo: GEDIGames/USP, 2014.
FRITSCH, M. The theory of economic development: an inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle. Regional
Studies, Oxfordshire, v. 51, n. 4, p. 654-655, 2017.
GREENE, W. Econometric analysis. Harlow: Pearson Education Limited, 2012.
HANLEY, J. A.; MCNEIL, B. J. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology, Easton,
v. 143, n. 1, p. 29-36, 1982.
HEGYI, G.; GARAMSZEGI, L. Z. Using information theory as a substitute for stepwise regression in ecology and behavior. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology, New York, v. 65, n. 1, p. 69-76, 2011.
HEMER, J. A snapshot on crowdfunding. Karlsruhe: Enconstor, 2011. (Working Paper, R2/2011).
HU, S. Akaike information criterion. Raleigh: Center for Research in Scientific Computation, North Carolina State University, 2007.
KATOS, V. Network intrusion detection: evaluating cluster, discriminant, and logit analysis. Information Sciences, New York, v. 177, n. 15, p. 3060-3073, 2007.
KICKSTARTER. Stats. [S.l.]: Kickstarter, 2017b. Disponível em: https://www.kickstarter.com/help/stats. Acesso em: 18 mar. 2018.
KITTUR, A. et al. Power of the few vs. wisdom of the crowd: Wikipedia and the rise of the bourgeoisie. World Wide Web, Bussum, v. 1, n. 2, p. 1-9, 2007.
KOCH, J. A.; SIERING, M. Crowdfunding success factors: the characteristics of successfully funded projects on crowdfunding platforms. In: EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON INFORMATION SYSTEMS, 23., 2015, Muenster. Proceedings... Muenster: ECIS, 2015.
KOENIG, G. Jettomero: hero of the universe. [S.l.]: Kickstarter, 2017. Disponível em: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/765409434/jettomero-hero-of-the-universe. Acesso em: 18 dez. 2017.
LAHM, R. J.; LITTLE, H. T. Bootstrapping business start-ups: entrepreneurship literature, textbooks, and teaching practices versus current business practices? Journal of Entrepreneurship Education, Cullowhee, v. 8, p. 61-73, 2005.
LI, W. et al. A regression model for the spatial distribution of red-crown crane in Yancheng Biosphere Reserve, China. Ecological Modelling, Amsterdam, v. 103, n. 2-3, p. 115-121, 1997.
LIPKIN, N. Examining Indie’s independence: the meaning of “Indie” games, the politics of production, and mainstream co-optation. Loading..., Toronto, v. 7, n. 11, p. 8-24, 2012.
LIU, C. et al. Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, Copenhagen, v. 28, n. 3, p. 385-393, 2005.
LONG, J. S.; FREESE, J. Regression models for categorical dependent variables using Stata. Texas: Stata Press, 2014.
MEOLI, A.; MUNARI, F.; BORT, J. The patent paradox in crowdfunding: an empirical analysis of Kickstarter data. Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford, v. 28, n. 5, p. 1321-1341, 2019.
MOLLICK, E. The dynamics of crowdfunding: an exploratory study. Journal of Business Venturing, New York, v. 29, n. 1, p. 1-16, 2014.
MOLLICK, E. R.; KUPPUSWAMY, V. After the campaign: outcomes of crowdfunding. Chapel Hill: UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School, 2014. (UNC Kenan-Flagler Research Paper, 2376997).
NEWMAN, J. Videogames. 2nd ed. London: Routledge, 2013.
NUCCIARELLI, A. et al. From value chains to technological platforms: the effects of crowdfunding in the digital game industry. Journal of Business Research, Athens, v. 78, p. 341-352, 2017.
PERKINS, N. J.; SCHISTERMAN, E. F. The inconsistency of “optimal” cutpoints obtained using two criteria based on the receiver operating characteristic curve. American Journal of Epidemiology, Cary, v. 163, n. 7, p. 670-675, 2006.
PINHEIRO, C. M. P.; MULLER, E.; BARTH, M. A tormenta de um crowdfunding de jogo brasileiro. E-Compós, Brasília, v. 17, n. 3, p. 1-16, 2014.
PLANELLS, A. J. Video games and the crowdfunding ideology: from the gamer-buyer to the prosumer-investor. Journal of Consumer Culture, London, v. 17, n. 3, p. 620-638, 2017.
PRAZERES FILHO, J. Capacidade preditiva de Modelos Credit Scoring em inferência dos rejeitados. 2014. Dissertação (Mestrado) - Universidade Federal de São Carlos, São Carlos, 2014.
R CORE TEAM. R version 3.4.3. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2017. Disponível em: https://www.r-project.org. Acesso em: 18 dez. 2017.
R STUDIO. R Studio desktop open source 1.1.383. [S.l.], 2017. Disponível em: https://www.rstudio.com. Acesso em: 18 dez. 2017.
ROBIN, X. pROC: an open-source package for R and S+ to analyze and compare ROC curves. BMC Bioinformatics, London, v. 12, n. 77, 2011.
SCHUMPETER, J. The theory of economic development. Tradução Ursula Backhaus. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2008. 37 p.
SCHWIENBACHER, A.; LARRALDE, B. Crowdfunding of small entrepreneurial ventures. SSRN Electronic Journal, Rochester, v. 10, p. 1-23, 2010.
SHTATLAND, E. S.; CAIN, E.; BARTON, M. B. The perils of stepwise logistic regression and how to escape them using information
criteria and the output delivery system. In: ANNUAL SAS USERS GROUP INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE, 26., 2001, Long Beach. Proceedings... Cary: SAS Institute Inc., 2001. p. 22-25.
SIMON, H. A. Reason in human affairs. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1985.
SLAKTER, M. J. A comparison of the Pearson Chi-Square and Kolmogorov goodness-of-fit tests with respect to validity. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Washington, v. 60, n. 311, p. 854-858, 1965.
SMITH, T. J.; MCKENNA, C. M. A comparison of logistic regression pseudo-R2 indices. Multiple Linear Regression Viewpoints, Akron, v. 39, n. 2, p. 17-26, 2013.
SUROWIECKI, J. The wisdom of crowds. New York: Anchor Books, 2005.
TORRES, D. A. R.; VIEIRA, F. C.; CRUZ, A. C. Sistema financeiro, sistema de inovação e desenvolvimento regional: um estudo sobre relação entre crédito e inovação para os estados da região Sudeste brasileira. Revista de Economia, Curitiba, v. 41, n. 1, p. 95-11, 2017.
TSCHANG, F. T. Balancing the tensions between rationalization and creativity in the video games industry. Organization Science, Linthicum, v. 18, n. 6, p. 989-1005, 2007.
VENABLES, W. N.; RIPLEY, B. D. Modern applied statistics with S. New York: Springer, 2002.
WILLIAMS, D. Structure and competition in the U.S. home video game industry. International Journal on Media Management, London, v. 4, n. 1, p. 41-54, 2002.
X-RATES. X-Rates. [S.l.], 2017. Disponível em: http://www.x-rates. com. Acesso em: 18 mar. 2018.
YOUDEN, W. J. Index for rating diagnostic tests. Cancer, New York, v. 3, n. 1, p. 32-35, 1950.
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Brasileira de Inovação
Downloads
