Palavras-chave
Hiato tecnológico
Mudanças estruturais e crescimento econômico
Como Citar
Resumo
O presente trabalho visa analisar a influência da taxa de câmbio real (RER) e do hiato tecnológico no crescimento econômico. Verificou-se que a relação máxima entre RER e crescimento é influenciada pelo hiato tecnológico. A redução do hiato tecnológico, proporcionada por melhoras do capital humano e pelo aumento do estoque de conhecimento, pode levar à aceleração do crescimento, seja por meio de mudanças estruturais ou pela melhora da competitividade extra preço. Portanto, é possível observar, formalmente, novos canais em que a desvalorização de RER e a redução do hiato tecnológico podem levar a um novo processo de causalidade cumulativa.
Referências
AGUIRRE, A.; CALDERÓN, C. Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance. Chile: Banco Central de Chile, 2005. p. 1-49. (Documentos de Trabajo, 315).
ALONSO, J. A. Growth and the external constraint: lessons from the Spanish case. Applied Economics, London, v. 31, n. 2, p. 245-253, 1999.
ARDALANI, Z.; BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M. Is there a J-Curve at the industry level? Economic Bulletin, Baltimore, v. 6, n. 26, p. 1-12, 2007.
ARRUDA, E. F.; CASTELAR, P. U. C.; MARTINS, G. The J-Curve and the Marshall-Lerner condition: evidence for net exports in the Southern region of Brazil. Planejamento e Políticas Públicas, Brasília, v. 52, n. 1, p. 17-48, 2019.
ARRUDA, E. F.; MARTINS, G. Curva J e condição de Marshall-Lerner: evidências para as exportações líquidas cearenses. Revista Economia e Desenvolvimento, João Pessoa, v. 15, n. 1, p. 40-59, 2016.
ATESOGLU, H. S. Balance-of-payments-constrained growth: evidence from United States. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Armonk, v. 15, n. 4, p. 37-68, 1993.
BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, M.; BROOKS, T. J. Bilateral J-curve between US and her trading partners. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Berlin, v. 135, n. 1, p. 156-165, 1999.
BALDWIN, R. Hysteresis in trade. In: FRANZ, W. (Org.). Hysteresis effects in economic models, studies in empirical economics. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag HD, 1990. p. 19-34.
BARBOSA-FILHO, N. H. The balance-of-payments constraint: from balanced trade to sustainable debt. PSL Quarterly Review, Rome, v. 54, n. 219, p. 381-400, 2001.
BENHABIB, J.; SPIEGEL, M. M. Human capital and technology diffusion. In: AGHION, P.; DURLAUF, S. (Org.). Handbook of economic growth. Philadelphia: Elsevier, 2005. p. 935-966. (v. 1).
BERNAT JUNIOR, G. A. Does manufacturing matter? A spatial econometric view of Kaldor’s laws. Journal of Regional Science, Amherst, v. 36, n. 3, p. 463-477, 1996.
BERTOLA, L.; HIGACHI, H.; PORCILE, G. Balance of payments constrained growth in Brazil: a test of Thrilwall’s Law 1890-1973. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Armonk, v. 25, n. 1, p. 123-140, 2002.
BOTTA, A. A structuralist North–South model on structural change, economic growth and catching-up. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Amsterdam, v. 20, n. 1, p. 61-73, 2009.
BREUER, S.; KLOSE, J. Who gains from nominal devaluation? An empirical assessment of euro‐area exports and imports. World Economy, Willowdale, v. 38, n. 12, p. 1966-1989, 2015.
CALVO, G. A.; REINHART, C. M. Fear of floating. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, New Brunswick, v. 117, n. 2, p. 379-408, 2002.
CIMOLI, M.; PORCILE, G. Technology, structural change, and BOPconstrained growth: a structuralist toolbox. Cambridge Journal of
Economics, Cambridge, v. 38, n. 1, p. 215-237, 2013.
COLACELLI, M. Intensive and extensive margins of exports and real exchange rate. New York: Economics Department, Barnard College, Columbia University, 2009. (Working Paper).
DE PRINCE, D.; KANNEBLEY JUNIOR, S. Strong hysteresis in Brazilian imports: a panel cointegration approach. Journal of Economic Studies, Glasgow, v. 40, n. 4, p. 528-548, 2013.
DIXON, R.; THIRLWALL, A. P. A model of regional growth-rate differences on Kaldorian lines. Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford, v. 27, n. 2, p. 201-214, 1975.
DOSI, G.; SOETE, L. Technology gaps and cost-based adjustment: some explorations on the determinants of international competitiveness. Metroeconomica, Bologna, v. 35, n. 3, p. 197-222, 1983.
EICHENGREEN, B. The real exchange rate and economic growth. Social and Economic Studies, New York, v. 56, n. 4, p. 7-20, 2007.
FAGERBERG, J. Technology and international differences in growth rates. Journal of Economic Literature, Nashville, v. 32, n. 3, p. 1147-1175, 1994.
FAJNZYLBER, F. International competitiveness: agreed goal, hard task. CEPAL Review, Santiago, n. 36, p. 7-23, 1988.
FELIPE, J. The role of the manufacturing sector in Southeast Asian development: a test of Kaldor’s first law. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Armonk, v. 20, n. 3, p. 463-485, 1998.
FELIPE, J.; MCCOMBIE, J. S. L.; NAQVI, K. ‘Is Pakistan’s growth rate balance of payments constrained? Policies and implications for development and growth’. Oxford Development Studies, Oxford, v. 38, n. 4, p. 477-496, 2010.
FERRARI, M. A. R.; FREITAS, F. N. P.; BARBOSA-FILHO, N. H. A taxa de câmbio real e a restrição externa: uma proposta de releitura com elasticidades endógenas. Revista de Economia Política, São Paulo, v. 33, n. 1, p. 60-81, 2013.
FINGLETON, B.; MCCOMBIE, J. S. L. Increasng returns and economic growth: some evidence for manufacturing from the European Union regions. Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford, v. 50, n. 1, p. 89-105, 1998.
FREUND, C.; PIEROLA, M. D. Export surges. Journal of Development Economics, Netherlands, v. 97, n. 2, p. 387-395, 2012.
GABRIEL, L. F.; JAYME JÚNIOR, F.; OREIRO, J. L. Economic growth, productive structure and real exchange rate: empirical evidence in panel data. In: ENCONTRO REGIONAL DE ECONOMIA, 22., 2017, Fortaleza. Anais... Niterói: ANPEC, 2017.
GABRIEL, L. F.; MISSIO, F. J. Real exchange rate and economic complexity in a North-South structuralist BoPG model. PSL Quarterly Review, Rome, v. 71, n. 287, p. 439-465, 2018.
GARCIMARTÍN, C.; ALONSO, J. A.; RIVAS, L. Convergence and balance of payments constrained growth: is there a puzzle? In: SOUZIAKIS, E.; CERQUEIRA, P. A. (Org.). Models of balance of payments constrained growth. 1. ed. London: Palgrave, 2012. p. 239-267. v. 1.
GOYA, D. The exchange rate and export variety: a cross-country analysis with long panel estimators. International Review of Economics & Finance, Stamford, v. 70, p. 649-665, 2020.
GREENWALD, B.; STIGLITZ, J. E. Helping infant economies grow: foundations of trade policies for developing countries. The American Economic Review, Nashville, v. 96, n. 2, p. 141-146, 2006.
HADDAD, M.; PANCARO, C. Can real exchange rate undervaluation boost exports and growth in developing countries? Yes, but not for long. Economic Premise, Washington DC, v. 20, p. 1-5, 2010.
HARRIS, R. I. D.; LAU, E. Verdoorn’s Law and increasing returns to scale in the UK regions, 1968-91: some new estimates based on the cointegration approach. Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford, v. 50, n. 2, p. 201-209, 1998.
HARRIS, R. I. D.; LIU, A. Verdoorn’s law and increasing returns to scale: country estimates based on the cointegration approach. Applied Economics Letters, London, v. 6, n. 1, p. 29-33, 1999.
JAYME JUNIOR, F. G. Balance-of-payments-constrained economic growth in Brazil. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, São Paulo, v. 23, n. 89, p. 62-84, 2003.
JAYME JUNIOR, F. G.; RESENDE, M. F. C. Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: teoria e a experiência brasileira. In: MICHEL, R.; CARVALHO, L. (Org.) Crescimento econômico: setor externo e inflação. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA, 2009.
KALDOR, N. The case for regional policies. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Oxford, v. 17, n. 3, p. 337-348, 1970.
KRUGMAN, P.; TAYLOR, L. Contractionary effects of devaluation. Journal of International Economics, vol. 8, n. 3, p. 445-456, 1978.
LALL, S. Technological capabilities and industrialization. World Development, New York, v. 20, n. 2, p. 165-186, 1992.
LAMONICA, M. T.; OREIRO, J. L. C.; FEIJÓ, C. Acumulação de capital, restrição externa, hiato tecnológico e mudança estrutural: teoria e experiência brasileira. Estudos Econômicos, São Paulo, v. 42, n. 1, p. 151-182, 2012.
LEÓN-LEDESMA, M. A. Economic growth and Verdoorn’s law in the Spanish regions, 1962-91. International Review of Applied Economics, London, v. 14, n. 1, p. 55-69, 2000.
LEÓN-LEDESMA, M. A. Cumulative growth, and the catching-up debate from a disequilibrium standpoint. In: MCCOMBIE, J. S. L.; PUGNO, M.; SORO, B. (Org.). Productivity growth and economic performance: essays on Verdoorn’s law. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002. p. 197-218.
LUCAS, R. E. On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, Amsterdam, v. 22, n. 1, p. 3-42, 1988.
MCCOMBIE, J. S. L.; ROBERTS, M. The role of balance of payments in economic growth. In: SETTERFIELD, M. (Org.). The economics of demand-led growth. Massachusetts: Edward Elgar, 2002. p. 87-114.
MCCOMBIE, J. S. L.; THIRLWALL, A. P. Economic growth and the Balance-of-Payments constraint. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1994.
MCMILLAN, M.; RODRIK, D. Globalization, structural change and productivity growth. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2011. Working Paper No. 17143.
MISSIO, F. J. Endogeneidade das elasticidades-renda nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa: uma resenha. Brazilian Keynesian Review, Pampulha, v. 1, n. 2, p. 135-165, 2015.
MISSIO, F. J.; GABRIEL, L. F. Real exchange rate, technological catching up and spillovers in a balance-of-payments constrained growth model. Economía, Curitiba, v. 17, n. 3, p. 291-309, 2016.
MISSIO, F. J.; JAYME JUNIOR, F. G. Structural heterogeneity and endogeneity of elasticities on the balance of payments constrained growth model. In: SOUZIAKIS, E.; CERQUEIRA, P. A. (Org.).
Models of balance of payments constrained growth. 1. ed. London: Palgrave, 2012. p. 239-267. (v. 1).
MISSIO, F. J.; JAYME JUNIOR, F. G.; CONCEIÇÃO, O. A. C. O problema das elasticidades nos modelos de crescimento com restrição externa: contribuições ao debate. Estudos Econômicos, São Paulo, v. 45, n. 2, p. 317-346, 2015.
MORAES, B. M. et al. Evidências da curva J para a balança comercial do estado do Rio Grande do Sul (1999-2014). Revista de Economia, Curitiba, v. 41, n. 2, p. 123-150, 2015.
MORENO-BRID, J. C. Capital flows, interest payments and the balanceof-payments. Metroeconomica, Bologna, v. 54, n. 2, p. 346-365, 2003.
MORENO-BRID, J. C. On capital flows and the balance-of-payments constrained growth model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Armonk, v. 21, n. 2, p. 283-297, 1998.
MOURA, G.; SILVA, S. Is there a Brazilian J-curve? Economic Bulletin, Baltimore, v. 6, n. 10, p. 1-17, 2005.
NARULA, R. Understanding absorptive capacities in an innovation systems context: consequences for economic and employment growth. Copenhagen: DRUID, 2004. (DRUID Working Paper, 04-02).
OCAMPO, J. A. Raúl Prebisch y la agenda del desarrollo en los albores del siglo XXI. In: SEMINARIO SOBRE LA TEORÍA DEL DESARROLLO EN LOS ALBORES DEL SIGLO XXI: EVENTO CONMEMORATIVO DEL CENTENARIO DEL NACIMIENTO DE DON RAÚL PREBISCH, 2001, Santiago. Anais... Santiago: CEPAL, 2001. 28 p.
PALLEY, T. I. Pitfalls in the theory of growth: an application to the balance of payments constrained growth model. Review of Political Economy, London, v. 15, n. 1, p. 75-84, 2003.
PAPAGEORGIOU, C. Technology adoption, human capital, and growth theory. Review of Development Economics, Oxford, v. 6, n. 3, p. 351-368, 2002.
PREBISCH, R. El desarrollo económico de América Latina y suprincipales problemas. New York: United Nations, 1950.
RAMOS FILHO, H. S.; FERREIRA, M. E. P. A taxa de câmbio e os ajustes no saldo da balança comercial brasileira: uma análise setorial da curva J. Nova Economia, Lisboa, v. 26, n. 3, p. 887-907, 2016.
RAZIN, O.; COLLINS, S. M. Real exchange rate misalignments and growth. Cambridge: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1997. (Working Paper, 6174).
RODRIK, D. The real exchange rate and economic growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Washington, n. 2, p. 365-412, 2008.
ROMER, P. M. Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, Chicago, v. 98, n. 5, p. S71-S102, 1990.
ROMERO, J. P.; SILVEIRA, F.; JAYME JUNIOR, F. G. Mudança estrutural, sistema nacional de inovações e restrição do balanço de pagamentos: teoria e implicações de política. Niterói: ANPEC, 2011. (Working Paper BNDES/ANPEC).
SCALCO, P. R.; CARVALHO, H. D.; CAMPOS, A. C. Choques na taxa de câmbio real e o saldo da balança comercial agropecuária brasileira: evidências da curva J entre 1994 e 2007. Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural, Brasília, v. 54, n. 3, p. 595-610, 2012.
SEERS, D. A model of comparative rates of growth in the world economy. Economic Journal, London, v. 72, n. 285, p. 45-78, 1962.
SONAGLIO, C. M.; SCALCO, P. R.; CAMPOS, A. C. Taxa de câmbio e a balança comercial brasileira de manufaturados: evidências da J-curve. Economía, Curitiba, v. 11, n. 3, p. 711-734, 2010.
STOKKE, H. E. Productivity growth and organizational learning. Review of Development Economics, Oxford, v. 12, n. 4, p. 764-778, 2008.
STORM, S.; NAASTEPAD, C. W. M. Crisis and recovery in the German economy: the real lessons. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Amsterdam, v. 32, p. 11-24, 2015.
SYRQUIN, M. Patterns of structural changes. In: CHENERY, H.; SRINIVASAN, T.N. (Org.). Handbook of development economics. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1995, p. 205-273.
THIRLWALL, A. P. The balance of payments constraint as an explanation of international growth rate differences. The Quarterly Review, New York, v. 64, n. 259, p. 429-438, 1979.
THIRLWALL, A. P.; HUSSAIN, M. N. The balance of payments constraint, capital flows and growth rate differences between developing countries. Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford, v. 34, n. 3, p. 498-510, 1982.
TÜRKAY, H. The validity of Marshall-Lerner condition in Turkey: a cointegration approach. Theoretical and Applied Economics, Bucureşti, v. 21, n. 10, p. 21-32, 2014.
UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT – UNCTAD. Trade and development report 2003. New York: UN Publication, 2003.
VERDOORN, P. J. Factors that determine the growth of labour productivity. In: MCCOMBIE, J. S. L.; PUGNO, M.; SORO, B. (Org.). Productivity
growth and economic performance: essays on Verdoorn’s law. Tradução A. P. Thirlwall. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2002. p. 28-36.
VERHEYEN, F. Exchange rate nonlinearities in EMU exports to the US. Economic Modelling, Canberra, v. 32, p. 66-76, 2013.
VERSPAGEN, B. Uneven growth between interdependent economies. London: Averbury, 1993.
WELLS, H.; THIRLWALL, A. P. Testing Kaldor’s laws across the countries of Africa. African Development Review, Abidjan, v. 15, n. 2-3, p. 89-105, 2003.
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Copyright (c) 2022 Revista Brasileira de Inovação
Downloads
