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Vários trabalhos empíricos têm encontrado uma relação negativa entre desalinhamento cambial e crescimento econômico para uma longa série de países nos últimos trinta anos; quanto mais depreciada a taxa de câmbio, maiores as taxas de crescimento. Nessa literatura, um tema recorrente é a relativa depreciação das moedas asiáticas quando comparadas às moedas latino-americanas e africanas. Nos diversos estudos, surge o resultado de maior depreciação para a Ásia, no que parece constituir um padrão de comportamento dos níveis de taxa de câmbio real para essa região. Com o objetivo de contribuir para a discussão, este trabalho compara a evolução dos níveis de taxas de câmbio reais para países da Ásia e América Latina no período 1970-1999. Discute aspectos do manejo cambial de alguns dos principais países dessas duas regiões e apresenta considerações sobre o papel da política cambial no processo de desenvolvimento destas duas macro-regiões.
Abstract
Patterns of exchange rate policy: East Asia versus Latin America Latin America Some authors argue in favor of a real exchange rate targeting strategy for developing countries in what could be called a development approach to exchange rates. According to the argument, relatively undervalued exchange rates have been a key factor in most East and Southeast Asian successful growth strategies. Following this so-called development approach, the objective of the paper is to compare the path of exchange rate levels in Asia and Latin America from 1970 to 1999. The work reviews some aspects of exchange rate management for some countries in those regions based on several case studies. It also presents an evolution of real exchange rate levels for a set of 20 countries based on World Bank data and on an index of exchange rate distortion.
Key words: Exchange rate levels. Growth. Latin America. East and Southeast Asia
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